Overpair 218bb deep and other hands from the sesh

[Fight CLUB]

villain started out the session very aggro and spwey. However, by the end his stats were very TAG (500 hands) and very similar to my own. Not sure if he planned to do this, or if this was his way of adjusting to my TAG style.

Here is a hand from early on:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
($332)
Hero ($132)

Dealt to Hero Q 8

Hero raises to $3, raises to $11, Hero calls $8

FLOP ($22) 9 9 5

checks, Hero bets $12, calls $12

TURN ($46) 9 9 5 2

checks, Hero bets $26, raises to $309 (AI), Hero calls $83 (AI)

RIVER ($264) 9 9 5 2 3

shows K A
(Pre 63%, Flop 50.8%, Turn 15.9%)

Hero shows Q 8
(Pre 37%, Flop 49.2%, Turn 84.1%)

Hero wins $263


Here's a hand from midway through the session

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($119)
($222)

Dealt to Hero J A

raises to $3, Hero raises to $12, calls $9

FLOP ($24) T 9 J

Hero checks, bets $14, Hero raises to $107 (AI), calls $93.70


A little later this hand came up


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($219)
($243)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

raises to $3, Hero raises to $12, calls $9

FLOP ($24) T 7 J

Hero bets $18, raises to $46, Hero calls $28

TURN ($116) T 7 J 5

Hero checks, bets $92




One last hand, from towards the end of the session:


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
($313)
Hero ($249)

Dealt to Hero Q A

Hero raises to $3, raises to $11, Hero calls $8

FLOP ($22) 3 4 A

bets $15, Hero calls $15

TURN ($52) 3 4 A 4

bets $36, Hero calls $36

RIVER ($124) 3 4 A 4 J

bets $102, Hero folds

wins $123

[th3h4x]

What did he show up with against your AJ hand?

[Fight CLUB]

Set of tens

[Laser Show]

QQ hand, he bought himself a free card on the turn when he raises your flop cb and you call. So if he has a draw, he should take the free card on turn in this spot. He is not checking river behind ever so you have to decide on turn if you want to play this pot for 200+BB with the pair. Put yourself in his shoes, would you want to bet an amount on turn w/ a draw/air that forced you to shove river when you missed and stack off for 200BB? Because you are so deep he has a wide enough flatting range to include 89 along with properly flatting JJ/TT/77/JT, so that's quite a few very realistic combos. Doubt he'd play T7 or J7 this way even if he might be flatting those this deep, so his range is very polarized to hands that have you crushed and maybe an uber draw (like AK or AQs). QQ is doing terrible against that range.

I have check shoved turns like this before and been good based on very specific dynamics and maniacs, but you say this guy has adjusted (and has a large stack to protect).

[Fight CLUB]

I agree with your analysis LaserShow, it is easy to get caught up in the flow of an aggresvie match and pay people off blindly. To some extend I didn't fold here because of the meta game, to stop him messing around in these spots. However, with a little deeper though process like you described, it's clearly -EV in this particular spot, even with meta game considerations.

Results: villain shows JJ