5/10 - AK river, call or bluffraise?

[Bazclef]

Villain is a very good 21/17/3 HS reg. He barrells frequently and applies pressure when he thinks villains are weak.

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($1268.40)
CO ($1975.00)
BTN ($1892.35)
SB ($1985.00)
BB ($4174.75)

Pre-flop: ($15, 5 players) Hero is UTG A K
Hero raises to $40, 3 folds, BB calls $30

Flop: 3 4 J ($97.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: 7 ($97.50, 2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80

River: Q ($257.50, 2 players)
BB bets $220, Hero?

[Gorgi24]

I would not call the turn if I didn't have a plan for the river. When you check the flop you are polarizing your range.. If I had more reads and I knew he could do this for thin value I would like a bluffraise, but I don't see that many hands that you can represent. I do think that his range is more weighed to nut hands, ie sets, QJ, 56, etc. Do you think he would do the same with KJ or AJ?

[JamesMa]

meh I would like it a little better if it was a different context. I think wen he flats ur utg raise from the bb he has you beat too much of the time to make the A high call down profitable

[Bazclef]

His valuerange of a turn bet that size is pretty small. Really only sets, the occasional 54s, QJ+. I'd expect him to fire turn with almost his whole range, but I guess that isn't too big here? I think he'd turn 55 into a bluff on the river, and all other air like T9s, etc maybe 88-99 too.

If I raise to $500 I only need to fold out just over half his river range. I can't rep all that much in fairness... really only AQ, but I still feel like he's going to fold a lot of the time. He can only really call sets and Qs imo.

[auto111032]

If he's really good, can apply pressure when he senses weakness, and the top of your range for raising river is AQ, what's to stop him from b3b'ing the river?

[JamesMa]

Do you think he's good enuf to bet a hand like KJ or AJ for value on the river? when you raise the river btw your hand doesnt make too much sense and I think you may get looked up lighter than just sets and Qx

[Bazclef]

Originally Posted by auto111032

If he's really good, can apply pressure when he senses weakness, and the top of your range for raising river is AQ, what's to stop him from b3b'ing the river?

Good point, but I think this is very unlikely. It'd take history to be able to pull that sort of move, it's a really big risk as he's going to have to put a lot of chips in the middle. We don't have any notable river-raise type history.

Originally Posted by JamesMa

Do you think he's good enuf to bet a hand like KJ or AJ for value on the river? when you raise the river btw your hand doesnt make too much sense and I think you may get looked up lighter than just sets and Qx

Yea he probably could bet KJ/AJ here some of the time.

[desire]

fold turn

you cant rep like ANYTHING and you will get b/3b a bunch if he really is good

[Unknown Soldier]

cbet, fold turn, snap fold river

[Bazclef]

Boooooooooooooooo

... ty for the input