5/10 bet or check turn?

[petenilson]

Hi Guys. My first post here. Im a reg in the 5/10 games on Ipoker. Anyway on to my hand.

Villain is laggy 25/21. We have tangled quite a bit before and he probably views me as over aggro. Im playing a 27/23 game and calling wide OTB.

Party, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $1,000
CO: $1,596
Hero (BTN): $1,010
SB: $228.65
BB: $1,045
UTG: $1,693.50

Pre-Flop: 3 A dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $40, 2 folds, Hero calls $40, 2 folds

Flop: ($95) 9 2 5 (2 Players)
UTG bets $70, Hero raises to $210, UTG calls $140

Turn: ($515) J (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero??

Im pretty sure he 3bets most flush draws and sets on the flop here. So on the turn I think his hand range consits mainly of pairs from 10's up. The standard line from a villain here is to c/shove the turn a high % of the time. So considering this should I be countering that by taking a free card when checked to or is there any merit in betting?

[Faramir]

I think checking is best, since you won't fold out any better hands, and have to call all in when you bet, with only the flush and maybe your Ace as an out. The check turn, and bet river is obvious for villain, so he won't call all that often, but so is the checkraise with a flushdraw, and the committing bet on the turn if you make it.

[aejones]

I would usually bet-call here, although there are certainly merits to checking (you do have SD value, free card, etc.)

[JamesMa]

if u think ur getting checkraised a ton and never rly folding out better hands then it is fine to check back

[Gorgi24]

I really prefer betting than checking here, we are basically giving up unless we hit our flush, there is no way we can bet a blank on the river and I do think we are folding out some better hands with a bet.

[The_End]

Originally Posted by aejones

I would usually bet-call here, although there are certainly merits to checking (you do have SD value, free card, etc.)

Do you think this is a spot where Villain can check/raise some hands on the turn, or is he better of either 3betting the flop or c/c down?

[grogheadflow]

I'd bet call as well here, partly on the premise that I 'never' should be bet calling a draw, so occasionally moving the very strongest of draws into your value range is good for deception and as a randomiser. As an aside, in villain's shoes with TT+ he should be bet calling this turn himself....

[LouisLouis]

As an aside, in villain's shoes with TT+ he should be bet calling this turn himself....

Not sure if you read the HH correct, but are you saying bet-call flop and lead-call turn with TT+/valuehands?

[grogheadflow]

^Yeah exactly, as a kind of alternative line to '3bet flop, get it in as a flip VS some flush draw and an over' then calling, seeing a blank (or c-folding to the flush card hitting) and leading works extremely well. It's like, VS a set you're going broke either way, and puts him in a horrible spot holding a flush draw with a small turn PSR needing some FE to be able to shove.

He'll be like 'arghh, do I have the odds to call, do I have FE? Should I fold? Wahha folding's weak'. And all his options seem to suck, which makes us really happy of course.

From a theory of poker perspective, this is your best chance of having him make a mistake.

[LouisLouis]

From a theory of poker perspective, this is your best chance of having him make a mistake.

I don't agree although I can see some merits to taking this line on occasions... maybe.

If he was bluffing on the flop, this line is really bad. This seems only good if we're up against a player who we're certain is going to check back with his draws instead of bet calling on the turn, thus never putting more money in the put if he doesn't improve. It's also really obvious what we have when we take this line, which should result in villain playing near perfect against it.