[5/10 HU] Nutflush facing river c/r

[yazzel]

Villain is a very good regular, we both play pretty aggressively.
He's a little loose oop but not to the point of flatting stuff like 78o. Also we've got a big dynamic of him c/raising a lot and me 3b bluffing a ton of flops so with all that combined I think that he c/c 7x very rarely on the flop.


$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (SB) ($2,505.25)
BB ($2,560)

Pre-Flop: ($15, 2 players) Hero is SB K A
Hero raises to $30, BB calls $20

Flop: 3 7 7 ($60, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB calls $50

Turn: 8 ($160, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $130, BB calls $130

River: 6 ($420, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB raises to $945, $645 to Hero ($1995.25)?

He's repping few hands, I think he plays 33 77 88 66 like this a good amount of the time, and very rarely 78s or 67s like this. It's pretty hard for him to have a K high flush given that he tends to 3bet his suited kings, but with the deepness maybe that he's just flatting those hands pre.
The thing is I'm barreling so much bluffs and value hands on this board, I think that if I bet/fold this hand it's really exploitable. And I already caught him making a nonsense bluff like this :http://weaktight.com/4005647
But given how hard it is for him to have a flush here or a boat compared to all of his A high / pp combos + the fact that I've been such a station so far, I don't expect him to be bluffing in that kind of spot...

[simon2312]

I think given your description of him c/r a lot + you 3b'ing a lot of flops there is a < 10% chance he is not c/raising 33 or 7x on this flop.
I assume he 3bets 88/66 a very small % due to stacksizes, however 7x a decent % of the time which reduces some 7x combos on average on the flop.

now it comes down to whether you expect him to c/r 88 on the turn or not. if you do so the river is a snapcall. if you don't, I still think your hand is too strong to fold if he showed some spewy tendencies. I'd b/f the K high flush most of the time tho.

[luckychewy]

he doesnt have a k high flush...dont fold tho

[aejones]

Originally Posted by luckychewy

he doesnt have a k high flush...dont fold tho

yea dont fold

[sauce123]

the only plausible flushes are QJss, QTss, 34ss, 35ss, 36ss, Q3ss, J3ss = 7 combos. Discount these (he might fold or raise QJ QT otf, he might not play Q3 J3 pre, he might not CR with some flush combos) and we get say 2 combos of worse flushes. We then have 10 combos of boats. As a simplifying assumption here, let's just assume he never raises 7x otf and never CR a boat before river.

On the other hand, you have something like 36 combos of bigger pairs, 36 combos of 8 + good kicker, say 32 combos of straights, and then I donno, maybe 45 combos of flushes along with 28 boats and 55 combos of 7x and then x combos of bluffs.

So, total, just counting value, you have mb 140 combos of worse value hands, 55 combos of 7x and then 28 combos of better value hands. I'd prob call with this one but I don't mind a fold either. It all depends on how capable he is of spazzing- I might very easily decide to bluffcatch lots of my range here or very little of it. Interestingly, with our assumptions, the ideal bluffcatch hand is something like As8x.