50/100: 3bet pot on the river vs lag

[kylejf]

Villian starts games a lot. Probubly a big winner in the games but idk. I have him running 33/20 over 250 hands. We have a one hand of history that rings a bell where i 3bet QQ vs his utg open from the SB and took a passive c/c line on JTx. He berated me after the hand so it sticks out in my head. No history this session though, we havent gotten into any big pots together.

Relevant stats:
Hes opening 69% otb.
50% fold to 3bet.
46% fold to cbet.
Somehow his total agression is only 1.4
W$@sd is only 36%

Will he have enough 45s/A4s/99 type hands to call the river with my hand or is this just a c/f?

Poker Stars, $50/$100 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $11,419.15
BTN: $10,595
Hero (SB): $37,217.35
BB: $22,300
UTG: $21,312.50

Pre-Flop: J K dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $200, Hero raises to $800, BB folds, BTN calls $600

Flop: ($1,700) K 3 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $950, BTN calls $950

Turn: ($3,600) 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1,950, BTN calls $1,950

River: ($7,500) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6,895 and is All-In

[mootang]

kyle when you check river, would you say he can profitably shove his whole range?

Originally Posted by kylejf

Will he have enough 45s/A4s/99 type hands

against someone good here that calls turn, i dont think he has enough of these hands for times he has you beat. fold imo.

[kylejf]

Originally Posted by mootang

kyle when you check river, would you say he can profitably shove his whole range?

yea i think he can. thats why i kind of wanted to call. jamming myself prob would have been bad right?

[mootang]

Originally Posted by kylejf

jamming myself prob would have been bad right?

i think jamming is better then c/c, but I like c/f river the best (although its v annoying)

maybe sauce will post his thoughts and we can all be enlightened lawlz.

[aejones]

i am okay with both check-calling and shoving the river for value. although i would tend to agree it's a little thin, i think he can have combos of some things with an ace in it, mid pocket pairs, etc. your turn check call range on the river is probably perceived to be nothing, so against good players it's sweet to have something like this in it.

also i don't really thik anyone has ever not value shoved KQ/AA/AK/QQ on this river, so he almost for sure just thinks you're just CF this river.

[klink10k]

i think c/c better than shoving, non Kx hands can't call but can bluff and he should be shoving most of his calling range. impossible for him to have Qx that may check back.

[RunAndGun28]

I think you might have one of the best hands in your range at this point to c/c the river. The only difference between AK and KJ is AK beats KJ, but the thing is, if you jam AK and all hands better (A5s, A5o, 22, 33, 44, 45s, KQ, KK), that's less than 7% of all hands. Assuming you jam all of those, as AE pointed out, the best hands you can have in your range when you check the river would be weak Kx AQ and JJ/TT/99. Obv when you hold Kx you block him from value jamming some of the potential Kx in his range, so it seems to make a little more sense to me to c/f the AQ JJ TT 99 and to c/c the KJ/KT.

If you never c/c the river with this hand, then it's probably the case that you are bluffing the turn too much since you will have to c/f the river so frequently (mostly I'm assuming with Ax holdings since they picked up the gutter). If we assume villain thinks it's true that we are bluffing the turn too much (which is what I assume you are thinking when you decide to VB the turn here), I think that you really need to c/c the river. He probably thinks the best hand you can get to the river this way with is AQ.

This isn't me trying to say I'm right. I'm just doing my best to try to piece together the puzzle and put my thoughts out there in order to see where stronger players might agree or disagree with my reasoning and why. Any criticism is welcome.