9d8d, a lead and a raise

[simon2312]

MP: $1,161
CO: $693.50
BTN: $1,727.25
SB: $1,566
Hero (BB): $1,000
UTG: $1,822

Pre-Flop: 8 9 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to $25, 2 folds, BTN calls $25, SB folds, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($80) 8 J 9 (3 Players)
Hero bets $60, UTG folds, BTN raises to $210,


hello leggo,

this hand kinda confuses me. initial raise is kinda tight with 22/20 and I expect him to cbet this texture very rarely, making my hand bad for a c/raise. btn is also on the tighter side, calls open 15% on the button. he bets 60% vs missed cbets but obv that stat is a bit flawed as it doesnt differentiate between sinlge and mutliway pots. he raises donkbets at 13% so far.

if I were to check, I think it should be to c/c against either player which is probably the standard. I still prefer a lead tho, as I can extract more value from hands that will play potcontrol on later streets otherwise.

not sure what my best line here is facing that raise, I feel that every option kinda sucks =/

[aejones]

yea this is really ugly. gosh, i never do it in practice but against someone who you think is raising this flop a low % as a bluff this just has to be a bet-fold. even if he has a bunch of combo draws in his range your'e not in good shape. in spots where there isn't any bluff dynamic (nor should there be on a lot of wet boards and multiway pots) there's so little value in clicking it back (never going to induce from like KT or something) or straight shoving (just never getting called by worse, unless it's JXcc, which is usually just a favorite over us). this is badnewsbears, we know anything further about his preflop range?

[simon2312]

well I think he 3bets JJ pre with a medium-ish frequency in this scenario, mostly due to stacksizes. almost the same acutally goes for 88/99 as there isnt that much of a difference there (again all due to them being a bit deeper). Im fairly sure he doesnt have T7s, J8s fwiw, maybe J9s and definitely stuff like JTs, QTs, KTs etc. some of that stuff might also 3b pre but I have not enough information about his habits with deeper stacksizes to judge that correctly. he probably calls all the mentioned stuff a bit more than usual given the 2,5x raise from the opener.

all the said things kinda apply for me as well actually, that board smashes his range about as much as my does (maybe my does a bit less given I even have 54s and things like that). so overall I think Im not THAT much top of my range here (given I have more equity with good draws here against his stack-off range). that would make me feel better about b/f'ing although that still feels nasty

[jkim54]

has he seen you donk in the past? I personally know many people are incapable of donking here with a balanced range and his perception of your donking range is really important.

bet/folding here definitely feels gross, but i think its best. we do terribly vs a legitimate stack off range. his raise size is sort of weird but it almost looks like he is making it large enough for u to be able to 3bet shove. every option does suck, but i think calling is worse than shoving is worse than folding. i also feel less bad folding simply because this isnt a spot that we are going to be exploited often. we are protected by the fact that we can have nuttish hands in our range.

How different will your decision be if you have J9/J8?

[Rolling chances]

is there an argument to be check calling the flop given that your hand is vulnerable and reassess if the club gets there on the turn or river? if a scare card comes on the turn is he likely to still to throw out a semi bluff with AJ or will he check back to pot control?

[grogheadflow]

I really think on this board VS someone good, you need this hand in your cc range.

[luckychewy]

Originally Posted by grogheadflow

I really think on this board VS someone good, you need this hand in your cc range.

why?

op, what sample is your hud stat coming from and how much stock are you putting into it? think shoving is okay and calling and shoving blanks is okay as well. if turn is a club and it goes check check i think bluffing river would be reasonable as well in some cases considering our range to b/c flop is going to have more fds than anything else.

[grogheadflow]

Originally Posted by luckychewy

why?

Because people CR sets and straights on this board, and CC everything else. I must triple barrel these boards even on blanks with an unreal success %. I assume other regs think the same and CC 98 here would confound that somewhat.

[luckychewy]

there are 20 cards that complicate the board texture(clubs, 7, t, q) and running pairs do the same. its also a board that doesn't get cbet that light so his draws are going to have good equity. not saying you cant cc but i think leading is perfectly reasonable and would imagine i play it this way more often than not because it feels like balancing a leading range is more important than balancing a cc range.

[shootaa]

The stronger your set check-call range would be, the weaker your leading/check-raising range would be. Just make a decision based on your opponent(s), stack sizes, board texture, and metagame (anything else?) in the situation. Sometimes the right answer could be lead and sometimes the right answer could be to check-call/raise.

In this spot against someone playing straight forwardly against your lead with very few bluffs that also have at least an open-ended straight draw to go along with them, I'll second what Aaron said about that range not being comprised of enough weak holdings for your bottom two on such a connected board to be good enough to get in on the flop, possibly even on a safe turn.

Also, re: grog's argument about check-calling strong hands, just because your hand is absolutely stronger does not necessarily mean it does better against an aggressor's range. I'm not arguing that having QJ here could be more valuable than 98dd, since that would probably require intimate knowledge of the button's range (or any aggressor in a similar situation - strong hand OOP). I just wanted to point out a common logic error I have seen a lot of people, including myself, make when thinking about a few hands.