durrrr vs elezra hand question

[tobinFrost]

Hey all I know this is an old hand and that trying to figure out Dwan's play is way over my head,but I've been thinking about this hand for a while and have some thoughts/questions that maybe some of you can help me with...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYzU9...eature=related


First off I'm s little curious as to what you guys think about Eli's re-raise, to me it seems that with 99 just calling would prevent you from getting into some tricky spots. Also do you think that Tom calls because he knows that people might not be giving his raises too much credit and because of that Eli won't always have a strong hand but at the same time thinks he might be able to take it down post flop is a either a low flop comes or some sort of f.d. and push Eli off of some over-cards or higher pairs?

now post flop I think it would be easy to take any 3 out of Eli's range, but maybe not the case for Dwan after Eli leads out is it possible to say that he probably would not have a Q in this spot? because he most likely will be cbetting nearly all flops and would probably just call pf with a hand like KQo, QJs and maybe QTs. Maybe he would re-reaise w/ KQs or AQs I really don't know much about his game. Plus now there are only two possible cards that he could hit instead of 3, and maybe he is trying to force a fold from some sort of suited hand?

now where I'm really confused is w/ his turn call. I know he is obviously trying to set up a bluff on the river if he doesn't catch a club. But if that happened he would have virtually no showdown value, and I know he was able to get him to lay down 99 but really aren't the only hands he can beat here are similar missed draws or some sort of bluff/semi-bluff. This is a pretty big pot so I would have thought that Eli might consider the fact that durrrr wouldn't just shut down if two blanks came after the flop especially when your second barrel is about a little over a third of the pot.

What would you guys do? Would you call w/ 99 or even TT, JJ, or like AK, KK or AJ? Would a call on the river be profitable here or is my noob logic just wrong?


thx

[aejones]

just calling with nines pre is fine, but you're so far ahead of his opening range that it's very attractive to 3-bet, especially with so much in there and the (rare) times the squeeze works, you pick up a bunch of money and might make some ppl make mistakes if tehy fold something like JT or w/e.

tom calls the turn because 1. he can't have a flush draw anymore in eli's eyes, he has to have showdown value (primarily a Q) and 2. he probably assumes eli has more pairs than Qx in his range based on pre and based on bet sizing on the flop and turn.

the river is difficult to say, obv tom did a good job "disguising his hand" and eli squarely has a bluff catcher and has identified it as such. he should call if he thinks tom is bluffing.

[tobinFrost]

aejones you don't think it's likely that tom could be put on a flush draw? is it possible that Eli thinks Tom could be calling the flop hoping to catch some overcard outs or maybe use some of the overcard hands in his range to bluff a f.d.? Maybe I'm a little biased because of seeing the hole cards but to me calling the flop looks like some of the suited hands that he plays a lot

when you say that he has to have showdown value (a queen) do you mean that Eli thinks Dwan likely has a queen in this spot? because if he did then double barreling would be a losing play right?

[aejones]

of course he has way more flush draws than Qx hands combo-wise, but eli doesn't thikn he'd ever call the turn with a FD, so it inflects his range to more made hands when he calls the turn.

[Rolling chances]

that one was good but this was even better by Dwan, bluffing Phil Ivey at the perfect time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSqkhN9Rqk0

Ive seen AE play with Dwan a fair bit and beat him in some big pots, i would be interested to listen to someones rationale by Dwan thinking Ivey is always weak when the river bricks.. i mean Ivey has the widest range of any top pro i have ever seen, probably why he is so damn good

[sauce123]

that's an example of 2 players playing terrible

[tobinFrost]

Originally Posted by sauce123

that's an example of 2 players playing terrible

saying two of the best poker players in the world played terribly might be an overstatement

[aejones]

Originally Posted by tobinFrost

saying two of the best poker players in the world played terribly might be an overstatement

it's more likely to be an understatement

[tedjam]

When its made by a player arguably better at nl than them its probaby a pretty accurate assesment. sauce is probably in the top ten nl deep stack players ever.

[tobinFrost]

Originally Posted by tedjam

When its made by a player arguably better at nl than them its probaby a pretty accurate assesment. sauce is probably in the top ten nl deep stack players ever.

I never said that sauce wasn't better at nl, but was just wondering if he wasn't exaggerating at all.

i mean these two have played so much against each other they probably have reads on each other that we have no idea about.