NL1000 AKs vs cold call to open4bet...WTF

[RPerfumo]

So weird... CO is a semifish, running 35/12.

SB is a reg, 24/16, don't know if any more data could be useful.

My though process was like: "OK, I split against AK, win against AQs if it is in his range, and lose against only one combo of AA and 3 combos of JJ, that won't be always in his range giving preflop action & the lead.

Thoughts?

$5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $1,512.88
Hero (BTN): $1,075.50
SB: $2,911.67
BB: $1,175.30
UTG: $1,036.40
MP: $1,626.38

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $26.25, CO raises to $70.31, Hero raises to $155, SB calls $150, 2 folds, CO calls $84.69

Flop: ($501.25) 8 A J (3 Players)
SB bets $250.62, CO folds, Hero calls $250.62

Turn: ($1,002.49) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $2,506.05 and is All-In, Hero calls $669.88 and is All-In

River: ($2,342.25) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $2,342.25 Pot

[FabledHero]

I think he has AA, but I'd still call given the price you're getting. Unless you have more reads about him, he just has 1 combo that beats you, and can also be value shoving AK which he has way more combos of even though you only chop against it. AKA in practice it might be a fold but i'm never making it lol. IT SO looks like AA though, not even sure he'd flat AK pre, don't think he flats JJ either given his stats.

[JamesMa]

I'd probably 4bet a bit bigger pf and dont think I'd fold turn readless although i'm not super happy about things cuz it looks like we have AK/AQ a fair bit...and for villain to donk into multiple players w/ the action pf just seems so strong

[King Dan]

pot is huge, gotta go with it :/

[theashman103]

24/16's range is going to be strongly weighted to JJ possibly AK. It would be a pretty crazy turn bet by him with TT.

[aejones]

jesus, i mean this is an absurd spot, wtf is he doing leading like that? pot got all big and tptk and stuff tho, id just call and hope he has something stupid and call it a cooler

[d2themfi]

id snap fold turn, and would sigh/fold the flop.

[d2themfi]

Idk if I would really discount AA or AK or any other big preflop hand because of his cold call. I think its reasonable that a lot of players wouldnt have a 5bet range in this spot, especially with the semi fish being the 3bettor and 10% of eff stacks already going in preflop.

Postflop, hes absolutely insane if he is doing this with AQ, and I think the fact that its a 4bet pot with 3 players combined with the flop texture and the guiy who is 35/12 in the pot means he wont have a bluffing range here. So his range is basically AK, JJ, AA.. Our turn equity is 29% which is literally a breakeven turn call (I dont have stoxev in front of me, but I suspect the combination of flop+turn call is -EV from the flop perspective). If you leave out just a small % of the AK then it is -EV to call turn..

[JamesMa]

I think its more likely he has JJ than AA, combinatorics aside. Its just a spot where ppl see AA and see all the money in the middle and ship in especially to prevent CO from seeing the flop cheap. But yeah maybe folding the turn is okay since we're essentially looking to chop

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by d2themfi

Idk if I would really discount AA or AK or any other big preflop hand because of his cold call. I think its reasonable that a lot of players wouldnt have a 5bet range in this spot, especially with the semi fish being the 3bettor and 10% of eff stacks already going in preflop.

Postflop, hes absolutely insane if he is doing this with AQ, and I think the fact that its a 4bet pot with 3 players combined with the flop texture and the guiy who is 35/12 in the pot means he wont have a bluffing range here. So his range is basically AK, JJ, AA.. Our turn equity is 29% which is literally a breakeven turn call (I dont have stoxev in front of me, but I suspect the combination of flop+turn call is -EV from the flop perspective). If you leave out just a small % of the AK then it is -EV to call turn..

Yeah I like folding the flop, but once I call the flop it's generally because I think his flop range is wide enough where we can get it in on the turn. I think calling flop and folding turn unless ofc you think he's bluffing the flop then will give up is the worst line. Even though call/call probably isn't that much better than call/fold.