Nl5K Over pair facing raise on squeezed pot

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by sauce123

It really depends. I think the best way to take shots is to do a bunch of scouting on your opponents and figure out some really cool and unexpected exploitative strategies for their particular playstyle which they won't be ready for. So then you can expect to have an unnaturally big edge your first few sessions before they adjust.

Yeah I hate how i'm such a bankroll nit def. something I need to work on. Knowing is only half the battle though unfortunately lol. However a good strategy I've found is to not checking winnings for me at least. If I don't check for a few days at a time or whatever helps me really focus on play instead of winning/money aspects.

Originally Posted by sauce123

If you are good enough to judge the EV of a certain play with precision, then it can be reasonable to not take +EV spots in order to reduce variance. Say for example in hu nlhe you open QTo on the CO and get 3bet- if I'm taking a shot I'm OK folding here since folding an extra 5% of borderline hands doesn't add much value to any exploitative counterstrat from villain, and doesn't cost me much EV either- but it will reduce my variance substantially. Now, it's easy for the people who are nitty at heart to call plays neutral EV when they are narrowly +EV in order to get out of uncomfortable situations. That's just rationalizing a bad play though, don't do it.

Yeah I actually for some reason mentally feel better about folding pre flop to reduce variance as opposed to post flop. I guess for some reason in my mind I've built this attitude that I shouldn't ever pass up EV post flop, like it's against the spirit of the game for me or something lol. And I play a very laggy style so my swings at times are insane so I should probably lower preflop and postflop variance at times to make my shots less stressful.

Originally Posted by sauce123

In my own case, I'm usually excited when I take a shot since I get the chance to play with players who I've been wanting to compete with. My attitude has always been to take no prisoners, since I plan to stay. But I don't think a more conservative attitude is by any means irrational.

I respect that attitude a lot. I need to unleash that within myself to a greater degree. I have it but at the same time I understand variance in poker and in HU some pretty brutal downswings are possible even with a decent edge. Just have to really train your mind to focus on the long-term I suppose, losing 20 buyins today or whatever is such a small amount of your lifetime winnings and future lifetime winnings.

Originally Posted by sauce123

In the case of this KK hand, my guess (based on OP) is that the better players in the game know OP is scared money, and so they are flatting wide and raising wide on the flop. So given that, if I'm OP, I probably don't know if they are just semibluffing more with like pair + gutter stuff, or even bare open ender stuff, or if they are pure bluffing a ton with like QJ JT 22 stuff. If the first is the case, we exploit our opponent by 3betting flop, if the second by calling down. So I would just look down at my own hand (KK) and realize that I have a terrible hand to slowplay with and 3b/call, setting up stacks for a 3/4th pot turn jam to punish floats. It's also fine and OK to check/call turn all in after the flop 3bet, but the issue is that OP is perceived as a nit, and I think they just give his 3b infinite credit. But they are going to be bluffing so much on flop that we win loads by just getting it in bad when they have it, and winning the pot when they don't, and so many of their bluffs might have equity that slowplaying is too speculative for my taste. I hope this helps, I'm pretty leery of posting vague exploitative reads which I don't have much basis for.

Yeah intuitively I think they're just attacking him with both types of hands, semibluffs and pure overcards like QJ, KQ, JT. The real question is does he bluff turns if we flat? If not ofc 3betting is better not to let him realize his equity, but I think given he likely thinks we're scared money he might fire the turn again at least a decent amount of the time, and if he does have those 2 overs in his range we def. aren't too worried about those, in fact he has a lot of reverse equity with those so against that portion of his range if it exists, calling is definitely great. Sucks if he's willing to get in pair + draws though and we let him pot control those and fold later on, but if he hits we pay him off. It's really hard to say what his bluffing range consists of with so little information on him.

Thanks for the in depth answer Sauce! I really enjoy reading your posts sir.

[neonsolen]

Originally Posted by FabledHero

The real question is does he bluff turns if we flat? If not ofc 3betting is better not to let him realize his .

If we don't expect villain to continue his bluffs on turn like almost never, call and c/f turn might be better than a 3-bet. But as u mentioned, I doubt it's the case.

Another thing, if he expect us to be moneyscared, I think call is way better than a 3bet, because he wont expect us to fuck with him vs his flop-raise very often and might be very likely to continue bluffing

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by neonsolen

If we don't expect villain to continue his bluffs on turn like almost never, call and c/f turn might be better than a 3-bet. But as u mentioned, I doubt it's the case.

Another thing, if he expect us to be moneyscared, I think call is way better than a 3bet, because he wont expect us to fuck with him vs his flop-raise very often and might be very likely to continue bluffing

Yeah agreed.