Nl5K Over pair facing raise on squeezed pot

[07Papi]

$25/$50 No Limit Holdem
Prima
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Player3 ($5,942)
UTG+1 Player4 ($5,494)
CO Player5 ($6,444)
BTN Player6 ($8,496.58)
SB Player1 ($1,511)
BB 07papi ($10,588)

Pre-Flop: ($75, 6 players) 07papi is BB K K
2 folds, Player5 raises to $125, Player6 calls $125, 1 fold, 07papi raises to $550, Player5 folds, Player6 calls $425

Flop: 8 7 4 ($1,250, 2 players)
07papi bets $700, Player6 raises to $1,700, 07papi folds

Final Pot: $2,650

Player6 wins $4,647 (net +$2,397)

07papi lost $1,250
Player5 lost $125




The game is running over the fish on the SB that i stacked 3 hands before.
The villain who calls is not one of the most agressive regulares in the software, but surely knows that i play nl400-nl1K usually and rarely nl2K-nl5K.
No big history with the guy, and not great reads.
My thought at the time, is that since we are 170BB efective BB deep, didn't feel very comfortable on shoving cause i'm just hoping that he is bluffing and never get called w/ worse, and i'm totally sure that i have the best hand around 75% times, but the true is that i got no further plans for the hand since im OOP, and i think he will play "perfectly" knowing in which cards to bet or no.
Anyway, opinions on the tight fold please

[simon2312]

dont play 25 50

[neonsolen]

Wow, fold sux BIGTIME here - troll post?

I like how u mention that ur totally sure ur good around 75% of the times and fold, wtf? If u dont think he will pay u off with worse, ur shove will still succeed the 75% of the times? if we say he will call it off with 2pairs, sets and straights u have around 20% equity. So ur shove with 75% FE would be extremly much better than fold. That said, call is obviously standard, ofc there can be merits to make a small 3bet.

So, As default here imo:

Call >> small 3bet >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> fold

[aejones]

it's tough to read into a dynamic that may or may not exist (for all we know your opponents could think you're aggressive for some reason, or think you're the nittiest nit out there and assume you'll really nit it up playing higher stakes than normal), but i would always feel very comfortable not folding this hand. again, i can't say that i expect him to just be stone bluffing very often, but people do stupid shit like raise pair + SD or raise JJ.

now, whether you should call or 3-bet when you proceed is a bit trickier. i'd tend to say call against most ppl, 3bet if there's a FD.

[petenilson]

Originally Posted by aejones

it's tough to read into a dynamic that may or may not exist (for all we know your opponents could think you're aggressive for some reason, or think you're the nittiest nit out there and assume you'll really nit it up playing higher stakes than normal), but i would always feel very comfortable not folding this hand. again, i can't say that i expect him to just be stone bluffing very often, but people do stupid shit like raise pair + SD or raise JJ.

now, whether you should call or 3-bet when you proceed is a bit trickier. i'd tend to say call against most ppl, 3bet if there's a FD.

Thoughts on check calling down on this texture if we are unsure about how to continue vs a raise?

[aejones]

Originally Posted by petenilson

Thoughts on check calling down on this texture if we are unsure about how to continue vs a raise?

great idea vs the right guy

[FabledHero]

Seems like an absurdly tight fold here. I can't see how it's good unless this guy almost never bluffs. It's a good board for him to pressure on you as well since you can't rebluff very well this deep, as well as you can't just shove and end the hand here as well since you risk more to win less. I would usually call down in this spot.

[sauce123]

anything but fold.

if you're taking a shot id just 3ball it up and shove turn for like 3/4th pot or w/e, makes the hand easy

[FabledHero]

Originally Posted by sauce123

anything but fold.

if you're taking a shot id just 3ball it up and shove turn for like 3/4th pot or w/e, makes the hand easy

Out of curiosity do you take lines to make hands easier often when taking shots? Maybe this is why I rarely take shots I kind of can't stand not making the right play, even though I can see the argument in certain spots. Like to avoid making mistakes later, reducing variance etc. So much better to just play comfortably!

[sauce123]

Originally Posted by FabledHero

Out of curiosity do you take lines to make hands easier often when taking shots? Maybe this is why I rarely take shots I kind of can't stand not making the right play, even though I can see the argument in certain spots. Like to avoid making mistakes later, reducing variance etc. So much better to just play comfortably!

It really depends. I think the best way to take shots is to do a bunch of scouting on your opponents and figure out some really cool and unexpected exploitative strategies for their particular playstyle which they won't be ready for. So then you can expect to have an unnaturally big edge your first few sessions before they adjust.

If you are good enough to judge the EV of a certain play with precision, then it can be reasonable to not take +EV spots in order to reduce variance. Say for example in hu nlhe you open QTo on the CO and get 3bet- if I'm taking a shot I'm OK folding here since folding an extra 5% of borderline hands doesn't add much value to any exploitative counterstrat from villain, and doesn't cost me much EV either- but it will reduce my variance substantially. Now, it's easy for the people who are nitty at heart to call plays neutral EV when they are narrowly +EV in order to get out of uncomfortable situations. That's just rationalizing a bad play though, don't do it.

In my own case, I'm usually excited when I take a shot since I get the chance to play with players who I've been wanting to compete with. My attitude has always been to take no prisoners, since I plan to stay. But I don't think a more conservative attitude is by any means irrational.

In the case of this KK hand, my guess (based on OP) is that the better players in the game know OP is scared money, and so they are flatting wide and raising wide on the flop. So given that, if I'm OP, I probably don't know if they are just semibluffing more with like pair + gutter stuff, or even bare open ender stuff, or if they are pure bluffing a ton with like QJ JT 22 stuff. If the first is the case, we exploit our opponent by 3betting flop, if the second by calling down. So I would just look down at my own hand (KK) and realize that I have a terrible hand to slowplay with and 3b/call, setting up stacks for a 3/4th pot turn jam to punish floats. It's also fine and OK to check/call turn all in after the flop 3bet, but the issue is that OP is perceived as a nit, and I think they just give his 3b infinite credit. But they are going to be bluffing so much on flop that we win loads by just getting it in bad when they have it, and winning the pot when they don't, and so many of their bluffs might have equity that slowplaying is too speculative for my taste. I hope this helps, I'm pretty leery of posting vague exploitative reads which I don't have much basis for.