turn/river spot w/ TPGK

[klink-]

Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): $552.00
SB: $696.80
BB: $972.00
UTG: $1141.40
MP: $519.50
CO: $500.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is BTN with A J
1 fold, MP raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $20, 1 fold, BB calls $10

Flop: ($65.00) 4 K A (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $50, Hero calls $50, BB folds

Turn: ($165.00) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $120, Hero calls $120

River: ($405.00) T (2 players)
MP bets $300

villain is a mega grinder but plays extremely loose and aggressive, I have him at 31/26 w/ 11% 3bet over a large sample of hands. I think he doesn't have that high of a flop or turn cbet %, but he seems to always bet river after betting turn (i.e. even with his bluffs he is either firing 1 or firing 3 and he can value bet thin on rivers). SB is a pretty big drooler.

Sort of a crappy spot on the turn, if i expect him almost always bet river should I always call/call or just fold turn? I don't expect him to think i have many floats in my range but i'm not sure if he is thinking on that level since i think he plays a ton of tables.

[vitti]

if he's either firing 1 - or 3 - why do you ask what to do on the river? (would fold river)

prolly fold turn, would call tho if he'd bet less

[mythrilfox]

folding the turn seems atrocious with all the draws on board. river kindve just seems like a leveling/opponent specific thing. all the draws missed except for QJ and he knows he'll have a lot of air in his range so it does seem like a sorta suicidal spot for a bluff. for that reason i'd fold river, but it is pretty opponent dependent and it sounds like you might need to call vs this guy (though I don't think he'll be valuetowning worse all that often)

[aejones]

i don't agree that you have to call river if you call turn here. our hand is pretty fken strong if we call the turn, it doesn't have to be that strong if we call the flop, and i dont' think that all missed draws bet the river (although certainly all hearts bet the turn). i would play the same as you and sometimes call the river and sometimes fold it, lean towards fold against a multi-tabling player who we think is halfway decent-- it's traditionally suicidal to bluff someone whose absolute strength is as strong as ours is by the time we get to the river.

[Bttech86]

with those reads and wider preflop stats id learn towards making the call

[sauce123]

call, but its not too important we have AJ

[shootaa]

Folding the turn is a terrible idea.

Assuming he bets this river with 100% of his turn semi-bluffs, which is pretty reasonable. It's an easy call.

A3s,QTs+,JTs,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,76s,65s,AJo+ wins 64.15%
AsJh wins 35.85%

EV(call) = ($700)(0.3585) - ($300)(64.15)
EV(call) = $250.95 - $192.45
EV(call) = $58.50

Printing money obv.

[sauce123]

shootaa- that range isn't quite representative because sometimes he will be 3barreling pure air and sometimes he will give up his semibluffs on the end.

i think we can expect to be good around 40% vs this guy.

[grogheadflow]

In his shoes I'm excited by your lack of button 3bet and would go 3 streets with any kind of turned equity. You have 33%+ certainly.

[JamesMa]

Id normally 3bet this pf I think. As played its totally game flow relevant I think, in general I'd be calling there until I felt ppl werent trying to move me off weak ace type of hands on the river or Kx with air a decent amount of the time