WEEE spot hu with 2 pair

[shootaa]

Villain is a marginal/decent winning regular waiting at a HU table and because nobody plays 2knl anymore, I decided to attempt to start a match and he obliges me! Before this hand, he had been playing about 45/38 and 3 betting 13% at somewhat standard times with a few tricky / leveling times here and there (i.e. hand after I 3 bet and he folded or hand after I win/lose a decent sized hand). I'd been 3 betting a decent amount as well, nothing crazy. I had recently check-raised a lot of flops and he had been getting pwned in that dynamic; although that isn't extremely relevant, I think it might be a little relevant. We are also on about 4-5 other tables together with takechip and some other grinders and he seems to be holding his own there and mixing in checking hands with c-betting in good spots, so I know he's thinking and at least decent at NLHE.

As far as post-flop goes, I'd been continuation betting a good amount, almost always on boards like this one, mixed in with the occasional check back. He's seen both me checking back to give up and me checking back some top pair hands. I stacked him the hand before the hand in question and he typed something that seemed to give the impression of tilt in the chat box. Going back through the hand in my mind, I think my decision is a tad more clear than I originally though... IDK it's still a very strange spot. I'm not sure he'd even take this line with QJ or AJ, which more or less cancel each other out. Just seems like a FML spot, so please take time to say something more than "call" or "fold" if you're going to reply.


VILLAIN ($3231 in chips)
HERO ($4457 in chips)

HERO: posts small blind $10
VILLAIN : posts big blind $20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [2d As]
HERO: raises $40 to $60
VILLAIN: calls $40
*** FLOP *** [Js 5d 2h]
VILLAIN: bets $120
HERO: calls $120
*** TURN *** [Js 5d 2h] [Ah]
VILLAIN: checks
HERO: bets $280
VILLAIN: calls $280
*** RIVER *** [Js 5d 2h Ah] [Qh]
VILLAIN: checks
HERO: bets $660
VILLAIN: raises $1680 to $2340
HERO: ?

[toocrispy]

just out of curiosity had he donked before? FWIW i think that QJ is more likely than AJ, but more likely than either of those two would b some gay backdoored heart draw (and obv air as well). That being said I can haz 2 pairs so i call i guess.

[grogheadflow]

Some guys just aren't capable of turning pairs into bluffs, and on this rainbow flop/ call turn that's essentially what he'd have to be doing (barring 34s or some other unlikely holding). I've seen hands where the likes of Nano CR the river here with JT for example.

So, if we think it's a stretch that he is turning some hand into a bluff, then I think he very plausibly reps Jxhh, or 5xhh. I think any ace that he donked would keep firing on the turn so I don't see AJ or AQ (which get 3bet a decent % anyhow), and I think rarely does QJ go for this thin raise (though more likely if on tilt).

In summary, it looks like a pair+bd flush, but given that's a relatively small number of combos it'd come down to how good I think he is. Mr 400NL who can't have JT here I fold, maybe someone much better and creative lean towards a call. Given all your stated reads, and including the fact he *might* be tilted enough to do this QJ, I'd call.........

[klink-]

call, i think he has QJ here a lot more than anything else. I don't think he is donking this flop often with air, and his turn line isn't really congruent w/ a set or better 2 pair combos and he rarely has KT

[Faramir]

There are a lot of "nutted" hands in your range, which he cannot fold out. (A2, A5, AJ, AA, JJ 55, 22 QQ, maybe bd hearts). And QJ would be bad since you would check behind all marginal hands, and you really have one ofthe nutted hands and wouldnt fold them or air. (so calling QJ would be optimal)

So i think he has a nutted hand himself that beats all of those hands. The problem is :I can only think of 4 hands here (KhTh, that didnt barrel turn to not get raised of, a weirdly played 34s that didn't barrel, or some 5h4h combo (pair+gutter+flushdraw) or maybe he has JhTh (since you appear to call flop donkbets light.)

Concluding: there are 2 things to say: he cannot move you off the nutted hands, so he shouldn't bluff here too often and only valueraise straights and flushes here.
But he can be on tilt, so he might not take that in consideration and do something stupid (maybe even with Khxx as blocker for the nuts), or make thin turncalls (with naked fd) to win it all back?. While his line is only congruent with KhTh and JhTh which is a really thin valuerange.
Up to you if he is so tilted that he can do some stupid things, or is thinking clearly and really has it.
Any timing/sizing tells? 2340 seems a fancy bet, which is usually made with nutted hands... since while bluffing he wants to look solid (like 2400)

[czzarr]

I think this is a fold. It's pretty obvious he has very few heart combos in his range that would take this line (namely Jxhh and maybe sometimes 5xhh) whereas you have a lot of them. For this reason I think he is never doing that with QJ, seems very suicidal.

[shootaa]

What do you guys think about sets? I know what I think, I just want to keep things going.

[Unknown Soldier]

id make a "wtf... i call" he's betting non sd flush draws on the turn. makes no sense to lead 5xhh so that leaves like J7+hh (which probably check flop most of the time anwyay). sets? meh sometimes, but not that often imo

[Branman]

Originally Posted by Faramir

There are a lot of "nutted" hands in your range, which he cannot fold out. (A2, A5, AJ, AA, JJ 55, 22 QQ, maybe bd hearts). And QJ would be bad since you would check behind all marginal hands, and you really have one ofthe nutted hands and wouldnt fold them or air. (so calling QJ would be optimal)

So i think he has a nutted hand himself that beats all of those hands. The problem is :I can only think of 4 hands here (KhTh, that didnt barrel turn to not get raised of, a weirdly played 34s that didn't barrel, or some 5h4h combo (pair+gutter+flushdraw) or maybe he has JhTh (since you appear to call flop donkbets light.)

Concluding: there are 2 things to say: he cannot move you off the nutted hands, so he shouldn't bluff here too often and only valueraise straights and flushes here.
But he can be on tilt, so he might not take that in consideration and do something stupid (maybe even with Khxx as blocker for the nuts), or make thin turncalls (with naked fd) to win it all back?. While his line is only congruent with KhTh and JhTh which is a really thin valuerange.
Up to you if he is so tilted that he can do some stupid things, or is thinking clearly and really has it.
Any timing/sizing tells? 2340 seems a fancy bet, which is usually made with nutted hands... since while bluffing he wants to look solid (like 2400)

Faramir said almost everything I thought of, however, I would add in that he can possibly be going for thin-ish value with 55 and an extraordinarily rare 22 since he should know that you recognize that it's very difficult for him to get to the river with straights/flushes. Additionally, he should know his range can't really include broadway sets given the HU 3b dynamic. So if he reasons that you will be obligated to call with two pairs then his value range is the weird broadway combodraws and the aforementioned sets and at the very thinnest, a theoretical AJ (however those combos have to be cut down since he checkraise/check calls that hands frequently and ditto the low sets). So I think this comes down to how often you've seen the villain turn made hands into bluffs and the X-factor of how tilty you think he is. I hope that isn't a copout of an answer but I just think these less tangible variables are the most crucial in this spot.

[shootaa]

Fwiw, I think a flush = set for him.


Unknown soldier, I don't really get your reasoning. You just think because he's repping so few combos, I should call?