Weird Game Theory Spot vs Sir Fishamus

[shootaa]

Hey guys, so here's a hand I played slumming it up at the ol' tre six, so technically not high stakes, but I thought the flop decision could spark some pretty cool game theory discussion that not as many people in MSNL would care about

My reads on the gentleman are that he's playing 100/26 over about 25 hands and hasn't done anything this crazy before this hand that I've seen; although, I was playing a lot of tables, so it's possible he did.

Full Tilt, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $2,270.50
UTG: $280.25
MP: $621.15
Hero (CO): $929.85
BTN: $612.90
SB: $652.65

Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP raises to $12, Hero raises to $45, 3 folds, MP calls $33

Flop: ($99) J 8 5 (2 Players)
MP bets $576.15 and is All-In, Hero ?

[aejones]

i was snap it off against an unknown

[coachgp]

seems like fistpump, so obv its prob not if ur posting it. Sooo


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

101,970 games 0.005 secs 20,394,000 games/sec

Board: Jh 8s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.277% 52.18% 02.10% 53209 2137.50 { JJ+, 88, 55, AhKh, AQs-A2s, KJs, J8s, T9s, 85s, 76s, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o, 85o }
Hand 1: 45.723% 43.63% 02.10% 44486 2137.50 { QhJs }


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which is just ALL nutted hands, and then all AXhh, and then the OESDs. 576/1251 means 46% equity needed. So that's vs the most nutted range, where our equity improves as we remove the AA KK QQ JJ or w/e we want that 4bs pf, and add in the other random ass draws, big combos xyhhs. He might also spaz with like 99 or AQ or plenty of other stuff, so I'd click the call btn.

edit: ignore, I used AQs-a2s, rather than AQhh-a2hh

[luckychewy]

i would also snap it off

[shootaa]

I would too guys. I just mean what's the general thought process when we have near the top of our range versus something goofy like this? Not what do I do with QJ here vs this player. I call. I mean what are we thinking in these spots in general, what if it's Prahlad... ok bad example, but you see what I'm getting at I hope.

Stoves wrong brah

[harangutang]

Originally Posted by shootaa

I would too guys. I just mean what's the general thought process when we have near the top of our range versus something goofy like this? Not what do I do with QJ here vs this player. I call. I mean what are we thinking in these spots in general, what if it's Prahlad... ok bad example, but you see what I'm getting at I hope.

Stoves wrong brah

I think I see what you are saying. Maybe post a similarish hand vs a reg? Vs a spazzy fish it's just such a straightforward thought process.

[The_End]

but what reg would ever shove 5x pot

[PlsTilt]

Game Theory applies when we have reasonable assumptions of villain's range. In an unknown spot GT requires us to assume that villain puts in money with the top of his range, checks-calls with the middle part and folds / bluffs with the weakest part.

The spot is less extreme than it seems, we are offered 46% pot odds. Assume worst case scenario, he does this only with AA, KK and sets (55,88,JJ). Our mistake in that case is ( $205 - $576.15 = -$370.44).
So the maximum mistake we can make is 61BB. It's reasonably big, but not enourmously. The actual EV of the spot is obviously a lot closer, but we have to incorporate an error rate which is pretty hard to estimate given the lack reads we have atm. Personally I don't think the range is as wide as CoachGP claims, I would assume a more passive style with the bottom and middle part of his range.

There is also value attached to the meta game aspects. There is a chance that villain quickly leaves the table if he wins, which would be seriously to our disadvantage as we hold the Jesus seat over him. If we fold, it is to the advantage of the table (fish wins money), actually it is Hero who benefits most if the fish wins. If we go all-in there is no inbetween, about ~50% of the time we let the fish double through us.

Meta game will move the EV of the decision a few points in the direction of a fold. If we fold we benefit indirectly, if we go all-in and win, we just win the EV of the spot. However, if we go all-in and lose, then we are relatively (compared to the table) disadvantaged most because we (value of our seat) benefit if the fish wins and vice versa.

My 2 cents .

[shootaa]

I was actually talking on AIM with coachgp (brag) and we were trying to figure out if the fish doubling up and leaving or busting and leaving was more likely, if this spot were somehow break even. Obv derailing my own thread.

[coachgp]

haha you beat me to it

we were talking about how if the call is slightly -EV, should we make the call knowing if the fish busts, he is leaving (say he bought in for 487.63$ or whatever, or you suspect he will just leave), and if he doubles up, he's staying and you will have a shot at taking the fish's money later in the session, rather than make a tight fold and let another reg have the opportunity to bust him.

Then furthermore, if a fish is allin for a 200bb pot, is he more likely to leave or stay (assuming he has more money still on the site) if he A. wins, or B. loses. I was def under the impression if he doubled up he'd stay wayy more often than he leaves, and if he lost, he leaves wayyy more than he stays.