2/4 - to call riv or not ?

[desire]

villain has loose stats and ive seen him size his bets poorly in some other spots, no other info. what should i be basing my decision on on the river ? i mean, all the draws missed and my range looks like what it is, but i still have no idea how frequently he is firing 3 here with air ..



$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($404)
UTG+1 ($1,054)
CO ($458.10)
BTN ($489.80)
SB ($412.50)
Hero ($1,755.20)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BB Q J
2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: J K 8 ($26, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: 4 ($66, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $56, Hero calls $56

River: 4 ($178, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $156, Hero ?

[steel108]

Flip a coin. I talk with friends about this spot all the time and we can never come to a definitive answer.

Assuming villan is a standard reg, I would fold the river.

(1) All draws missed so he will be less inclined to bluff since you will give him less credit. Also, if you have a busted draw, there is literally no reason to bet so big if he is bluffing.

(2) The bottom card pairing is not exactly the best card to fire the 3rd barrel on if he was bluffing. But it does allow him to value bet with more confidence.

While it's true to you never have a huge hand here, I don't think villan will exploit it on the river given the way the board ran out.

[Unknown Soldier]

if in doubt fold qj

[desire]

just fwiw i've been always folding here as a default just because i dont expect them to barrel given how obvious it would be but sometimes i see people bluffing in weird spots so i just wanted to go over this

[Fabsch]

is it standard to call the turn (and have no idea what to do on a blank river)?

[grogheadflow]

In his shoes, I'm looking at your call 2 range VS your call 3 range, and deciding there's enough of a difference to fire 3: (T9, all jacks, flush draws sometimes are all in your call 2, but not your call 3).

I'm not saying he is though, in fact I don't expect a 3 barrel bluff here from most, and I'd move him into my 'creative regs' category if he proved me wrong. As a default I'd fold, but I'd find a call if a) he was potentially as aggressive as me, or b) I'd seen a hand where he showed the inability to value bet thin on the river. Ie, some regs check back KT here..........

[Isura]

I agree with grog. The 3 barrel is a lost art at mid stakes these days. I guess since everyone's a station.