250bb deep rrpot facing riverjam. + math

[PlsTilt]

Villain is Kidpoker705 on FTP, seems a winning regular, we don't hve too much history. I am just wrapping up a session where I played solid aggro (27/21) didn't do anything crazy vs Kidpoker, however I did 3bet his Iso raises before and he folded so far or called and folded to a cbet postflop

kidpoker plays 24/18 iso raises a bunch and plays pretty straight forward to 3bets, he folds about 65% to 3bets.

Initial limper is a big fish, 44/0 fit-or-folds postflop.

On the turn my hand is pretty much a lock and I expect few calls from worse if I 2ndbarrel. I expect a good % of pockets and maybe some suited broadways he floats. If I c/c I hope to rep a pp myself that refuses to let go.




I did the math on this
I break even when:

A) He bluffs 0%, has the nuts 30% and we chop 70%
B) He bluffs 26%, has the nuts 74% and we never chop
C) He bluffs 18%, has the nuts 61% and we chop 21%
D) He bluffs 5%, has the nuts 38% and we chop 57%

If in any of these scenario's he has less often the nuts I turn a profit on the call.

2 questions,
- what is his likely % of nuts / bluff / chop here?

- Any comments on pre / turn play?



Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $318.00
BTN: $1570.90
Hero (SB): $1008.90
BB: $567.90

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with A J
CO calls $4, BTN raises to $18, Hero raises to $62, 2 folds, BTN calls $44

Flop: ($132.00) 5 2 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $68.00, BTN calls $68

Turn: ($268.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $166.00, Hero calls $166

River: ($600.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1274.90, Hero goes in da tank 712.90$ behind.

[sh58]

well not knowing anyting about him it is hard to know his tendancies. however it is safe to assume he is bluffing more than 0%.

as to your other questions. i usually flat preflop to keep in the donk. AJo is a bad hand to play deep OOP.

flop is ok, maybe a little larger is better. turn and river are fine. i think i call the river

[JamesMa]

what about donk betting the river yourself if you are unsure what to do to river shoves which you are so likely to face from Ax and 6x and I donkt kno how often he will bluff this spot here... betting the river will turn ur hand faceup but I dont think he will jam over with Ax or worse at all.

Only hands I see him having to beat you though are A6,66,56s, mayb 46s.. so its a pretty sick spot

I also like the turn check to open up his bluff range

[auto111032]

PF is terrible. As played, fine, call the river. I like SH's comments. Donking the river without very specific reads is terrible.

[desire]

bet turn bet river yourself, as played call

[Pwoita]

Originally Posted by auto111032

PF is terrible.

We pick it up a lot of the time here, blockers to QK/AQ/AJ/AA/JJ also help to give the isolator a weaker range whilch folds more often, and when we don't take it down pf, we have some decent equity.

By flatting pf, the fish will flat alot, and AJ isn't an awesome hand to play OOP in a multiway pot, and we cant really bluff much post flop oop multiway to make up any EV. On top of which, if one of them has an A or a J, then 7/8 times on the flop there wont be that card and we are giving the pot away to the isolator in those instances.

The main problem against 3betting is that we are deep with the reg, but with all the advantages of 3betting pf I wouldn't say pf is "terrible"

[cntgetmedown]

Firstly I agree that there is also value in calling this preflop to keep in the bad player.
I don't see why he can't also have AQ in his range here. If he has some floating range. His range with sixes probably contains 66 and 56s as JamesMa mentioned, though I'm not entirely sure he would defend low suited aces. Anyways if he does than he can have more chops in his range.
I just have trouble putting him on a significant bluffing range. What hands do we think he's floating us with here on the flop that have not improved and will be bluffing here. Do we think he will turn weak made hands into bluffs here, say 88 and 99? Can he play KQs this way?
Something I think we should also consider is do we think he can play and valuebet worse this way? I think a decent amount of players will try to set mine this deep with position. So that puts hands in his range that might be overplaying against our hand, due to perceived strength.
This is minor, but does villains bet sizing appear awkward to you? He could have bet more on the turn to make the river less than a pot sized shove.

[PlsTilt]

yah betsize does look awkward to me. It's a small stab on the turn, considering stacks. But I don't know how to interpret this. It can be strength, if he wants to keep my turn range wide and make me hero call a river. Or it can be air, he stabs turn small and wants to jam it big on the river to push me off a chop or off an overpair.

[cntgetmedown]

I'd think that if it meant something it would more likely be air as you deduced, because with a strong hand he would want you to think you are getting a good price on a call and bet more on the turn so he can shove for less than pot on the river.

[d2themfi]

obviously your leaving yourself wide open to exploitation if you fold this, and then ofcourse the question is, will he actually try to exploit u here. Ill leave that up to others but I think more importantly is preflop is a fairly significant mistake. You 3bet a hand that really shouldnt be 3bet oop this deep vs anyone competent, while also shutting the fish out of the pot. Without the limper it becomes closer, but with the limper in there in my mind the only play is to call preflop