Villain is Kidpoker705 on FTP, seems a winning regular, we don't hve too much history. I am just wrapping up a session where I played solid aggro (27/21) didn't do anything crazy vs Kidpoker, however I did 3bet his Iso raises before and he folded so far or called and folded to a cbet postflop
kidpoker plays 24/18 iso raises a bunch and plays pretty straight forward to 3bets, he folds about 65% to 3bets.
Initial limper is a big fish, 44/0 fit-or-folds postflop.
On the turn my hand is pretty much a lock and I expect few calls from worse if I 2ndbarrel. I expect a good % of pockets and maybe some suited broadways he floats. If I c/c I hope to rep a pp myself that refuses to let go.
I did the math on this
I break even when:
A) He bluffs 0%, has the nuts 30% and we chop 70%
B) He bluffs 26%, has the nuts 74% and we never chop
C) He bluffs 18%, has the nuts 61% and we chop 21%
D) He bluffs 5%, has the nuts 38% and we chop 57%
If in any of these scenario's he has less often the nuts I turn a profit on the call.
2 questions,
- what is his likely % of nuts / bluff / chop here?
- Any comments on pre / turn play?
Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.com
CO: $318.00
BTN: $1570.90
Hero (SB): $1008.90
BB: $567.90
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with A
J
CO calls $4,
BTN raises to $18,
Hero raises to $62,
2 folds, BTN calls $44
Flop: ($132.00) 5
2
3
(2 players)
Hero bets $68.00, BTN calls $68
Turn: ($268.00) 4
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $166.00, Hero calls $166
River: ($600.00) 9
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $1274.90, Hero goes in da tank 712.90$ behind.
