400NL: Fire the 3rd barrel?

[steel108]

Brand new to FTP so there is basically zero history or reads. Villan seems very standard to me though: 20/16/6 3B, but no clue about tendencies. This is a spot where I never know whether to bet river.

On the flop, his range is still pretty wide open. AQ, KQ, QJ, 99-JJ, 44, 88, QQ, a ton of flush draws (don't know how he would play the NFD or combos)

On the turn when he calls, I discount sets so his range is probably a Q, he might call one more barrel w 99-JJ, he might call again with a flush draw (don't know for sure). I don't think he ever has complete air (meaning a double float) and his range is heavily weighted towards 1 pair hands.

(1) Do you like barreling the river?

(2) What are your considerations?

(3) Bet sizing if you bet?

He could have QJ, JJ, 99, TT, busted flush draws, AQ, KQ. I know it's a pretty narrow range, but mp vs utg, I don't expect him to be calling turn with worse (99-JJ might be a stretch). I don't give him credit for calling 2 barrels with a set so I kind of take them out of his range.

I always go through a battle in my mind in these spots. All draws missed so he isn't folding anything. But he knows that I know so he should respect the 3rd barrel, etc.......................




$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($467.30)
UTG+1 ($710.70)
CO ($400)
BTN ($396.50)
SB ($972.30)
BB ($506.60)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is UTG 10 K
Hero raises to $14, UTG+1 calls $14, 4 folds

Flop: 8 4 Q ($34, 2 players)
Hero bets $24, UTG+1 calls $24

Turn: 3 ($82, 2 players)
Hero bets $56, UTG+1 calls $56

River: J ($194, 2 players)
Hero ($373.3)?

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

If he's 20/16 and calling your UTG I'd be taking out QJ, fds that don't have a Q or aren't AJss, ATss, AQss, AKss; and KQo (and there are only 2 combos of KQss here anyway).

I don't think we have to worry as much as a LP open about him putting us on a FD and calling light. My first instinct was that the river is actually a bad card for you.

12 combos AQ (maybe)
2 combos KQss
3 combos JJ
3 combos TT
6 combos 99
6-9 combos of 22-77

[steel108]

Which river do you firing on? A blank 3?

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

That would be a better card than the Jo.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Also I'm being purposely ambiguous because this is a spot that is inheritantly very close and therefore what happened at your table and other timing, dynamics, etc, should dictate what you actually do this time.

[McRiverson]

although the river appears to be a good 3 barrel spot, it also smashes alot of his range. Im assuming he'll raise you with draws and nutt'd hands on either turn/river, he is probably calling down with a lower portion of his strong hand ranges. he he is going to c/c all 3 streets with, ei JQ.etc so i think its a c/f

[steel108]

Ok, at least I am on the right track. I did check and villan checked back w AQ. I'm still wondering if he would have folded AQ to a big bet.

[harangutang]

Originally Posted by steel108

Ok, at least I am on the right track. I did check and villan checked back w AQ. I'm still wondering if he would have folded AQ to a big bet.

I really don't think he would ever fold AQ unless you could like 3x pot overshove.

[Isura]

Originally Posted by MYNAMEIZGREG

If he's 20/16 and calling your UTG I'd be taking out QJ, fds that don't have a Q or aren't AJss, ATss, AQss, AKss; and KQo (and there are only 2 combos of KQss here anyway).

I don't think we have to worry as much as a LP open about him putting us on a FD and calling light. My first instinct was that the river is actually a bad card for you.

12 combos AQ (maybe)
2 combos KQss
3 combos JJ
3 combos TT
6 combos 99
6-9 combos of 22-77

QJs/QTs are likely PF calls but not many combos. But he's 20/16 so meh who knows. Chance he folds 99/TT on the turn. Really depends on how often he plays non Qx flush draws like this. But seems like QT+ is huge part of his range.

Anyways, people at 2/4 don't bluff when FDs miss often enough, and J is pretty good card for us, esp if he has slowplayed AA/KK (seems way less likely than AQ but possible). Thus I like a bluff, probably $145

[steel108]

Originally Posted by Isura

QJs/QTs are likely PF calls but not many combos. But he's 20/16 so meh who knows. Chance he folds 99/TT on the turn. Really depends on how often he plays non Qx flush draws like this. But seems like QT+ is huge part of his range.

Anyways, people at 2/4 don't bluff when FDs miss often enough, and J is pretty good card for us, esp if he has slowplayed AA/KK (seems way less likely than AQ but possible). Thus I like a bluff, probably $145

That was my first inclination; I should never be bluffing here, so I will bluff. But then the leveling war starts in my head.