$6 counterfeited boat vs weak player

[cntgetmedown]

Villain is one of the weakest players at the table. He is playing very loose and his hands poorly. I assume he's peeling any gutshot on the flop, some ace highs, some small to mid pps.
Tricky thing is that I'm not entirely sure how he plays a Q here. I know he's capable of bluffing the river though if he had a drawing hand by the turn. I wouldn't exclude him from playing a T this way if he had one in his turn calling range, but am not sure at this point he would lead the turn with a T.
What do you guys think about the river spot?

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($450)
UTG+1 ($1,164)
CO ($759.75)
Hero (BTN) ($600)
SB ($606)
BB ($1,390.04)

Pre-Flop: ($9, 6 players) Hero is BTN 10 10
3 folds, Hero raises to $15, 1 fold, BB calls $9

Flop: 10 Q Q ($33, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20

Turn: 9 ($73, 2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero raises to $108, BB calls $72

River: 9 ($289, 2 players)
BB bets $204

Final Pot: $493

[steel108]

Such a dirty spot. I just can't fold because he is bad. Some fish will NEVER be bluffing, some will ALWAYS be bluffing. If you don't know how he would act in this spot it's a call.

[Branman]

First of all, I don't like your betsizing. If he's a fish his calling range on the flop is probably fairly inelastic Think about it; he has pairs, A hi's which have gutshots, broadways with gutshots and trips;

--so instead of 20 cbet-->raise to 108 turn---> river pot $289

-- how about, cbet $30--> (pot $93) raise 1/2 PSB donkbet to $148---> (pot about $400) jam river.

Remember, you want to get stacks in! A slightly larger flop bet = more profits vs fish in this case. Play around with the sizes and see what you can do.

As played, concerning the call on the river. Let's look at it this way. Your pot odds= 204/(493+204)= .29
So you have to be good a bit less than 30% to breakeven. So poker stove would help greatly here, buuuut, That is time consuming and i'm fiending for some poker.

So let's say that he calls raises on the turn With 9x pair+SDs like 9J, K9 at least a significant portion of the time. He can also be monkey bluffing a missed AJ some percentage of the time and some small percentage of the time I could imagine him having the case T with AT/KT not knowing wtf to do on the river. Can he have Axhh? Basically, by definition since there are already 2 Q's on the board, he can't have them THAT much of the total time. Also, is he so bad that he is calling Q8o oop or Q5ss. Does he 3b much preflop (can he ever have AQ)? It's possible that he has almost only QJ/KQ (since so many 9's are on the board,and the Tens are almost all burned up). Also, is he capable of playing slightly smartish and check raising all in with his biggest hands? From your description it seems like even if he has a Q a disproportionate amount of the time given his relatively wide range getting to the river, he can still have a lot of other bottom full house/bluffs at least and very likely more than 1/3 of the time. So I call this all day and am fairly happy about it.

[JamesMa]

I dont think any fish is going to donk out here w/o having you beat unless its the type of fish that is known to do really bad bluffs. cuz really who tries to bluff here

[steel108]

Originally Posted by JamesMa

I dont think any fish is going to donk out here w/o having you beat unless its the type of fish that is known to do really bad bluffs. cuz really who tries to bluff here

I see fish do this ALL the time with like 33. They are fish for a reason. It depends on the fish though; like I said, some fish will always bluff here and some will always be betting the nuts

[cntgetmedown]

Originally Posted by Branman

First of all, I don't like your betsizing. If he's a fish his calling range on the flop is probably fairly inelastic Think about it; he has pairs, A hi's which have gutshots, broadways with gutshots and trips;

--so instead of 20 cbet-->raise to 108 turn---> river pot $289

-- how about, cbet $30--> (pot $93) raise 1/2 PSB donkbet to $148---> (pot about $400) jam river.

Remember, you want to get stacks in! A slightly larger flop bet = more profits vs fish in this case. Play around with the sizes and see what you can do.

As played, concerning the call on the river. Let's look at it this way. Your pot odds= 204/(493+204)= .29
So you have to be good a bit less than 30% to breakeven. So poker stove would help greatly here, buuuut, That is time consuming and i'm fiending for some poker.

So let's say that he calls raises on the turn With 9x pair+SDs like 9J, K9 at least a significant portion of the time. He can also be monkey bluffing a missed AJ some percentage of the time and some small percentage of the time I could imagine him having the case T with AT/KT not knowing wtf to do on the river. Can he have Axhh? Basically, by definition since there are already 2 Q's on the board, he can't have them THAT much of the total time. Also, is he so bad that he is calling Q8o oop or Q5ss. Does he 3b much preflop (can he ever have AQ)? It's possible that he has almost only QJ/KQ (since so many 9's are on the board,and the Tens are almost all burned up). Also, is he capable of playing slightly smartish and check raising all in with his biggest hands? From your description it seems like even if he has a Q a disproportionate amount of the time given his relatively wide range getting to the river, he can still have a lot of other bottom full house/bluffs at least and very likely more than 1/3 of the time. So I call this all day and am fairly happy about it.

I think villain is very capable of having q8o, q5ss. Pretty sure he would 3bet AQ. The thing with the pair+sds is that it's tricky to say whether he would lead the turn with a hand that has that much sd value because I assume that most weaker villains will have a lot of respect for a q on the river and will not bet here with a 9. I would say that it's definetly the minority of weaker players.
AJ makes a lot of sense, though he might be 3betting that pre. He can definetly have ace high flush draws.
In the end to be honest my read on this player at this point wasn't strong enough to make any very specific conclusions about his range.
So my question is what people might tend to do here given my level of information.
I do however stand by my point that I think underfulls are pretty unlikely here.

Thanks for all your replies so far guys.

[coachgp]

^^ click call, and then stack him before he loses 250bb+ if you lost the hand

[coachgp]

also, he could have like KJ J8 and spaz on the river when he was counterfeited. Some fish do that all the time. That combined with like some AJ, some 9x, some random stuff I think makes up for all the Q8s in his range.

[RikaKazak]

Originally Posted by JamesMa

I dont think any fish is going to donk out here w/o having you beat unless its the type of fish that is known to do really bad bluffs. cuz really who tries to bluff here

I was thinking the same thing...I think this is a weak Q that just goes "wooohooo kickers don't matter anymore" and bets

[Branman]

I don't mean to be nitpicky or overly critical, but I don't really see the point of saying, 'he must have a Q' without some discussion of what hand range could get to the river in the first place. Of course, his action makes it appear that he has a Q, but appearances can be deceiving!