$6 Interesting spot w/top set

[cntgetmedown]

$3/$6 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by http://weaktight.com/

Stacks:
UTG $1,462.25
UTG+1 $756.80
Hero (CO) $861
BTN $720.35
SB $1,106.65
BB $660

Pre-Flop: ($9, 6 players) Hero is CO 9c 9d
UTG raises to $15, 1 fold, Hero calls $15, 3 folds

Flop: 7c 5h 9s ($39, 2 players)
UTG bets $29, Hero raises to $87, UTG calls $58

Turn: Jh ($213, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $166, UTG calls $166

River: Ah ($545, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero

Villain is a regular that I know to be aggressive, we've tangled some so far, playing a bit of HU on a table that broke, but not for long. I would say we have established an active regular dynamic.
I think it's reasonable to assume that villain would have gotten the money in with a straight or set by the turn and likely with two pair, though he might decide to bluff catch with a hand like 75 or 97.
Give the texture of the board and our hand I think this looks like a standard shove spot, but I wonder if this may actually be a negative EV shove without a more active dynamic. There are practically no missed draws on board and now I'm also losing to AA. So I think most of his potential calling range is QQ-KK and they're not looking like they're in good shape. What do you guys think?

[RikaKazak]

I push all day. I know what you're saying about it's tough for him to call. But I think you see a hero/pissed off KK call enough to make the times you value pwn yourself +EV (basically it won't be hugely profitable, but it is +EV plus if he folds KK he'll never "truely" know if he made the right fold or not...which I like having that psycological edge)

[steel108]

I hate these spots! I just don't think you are ever getting called here, but it feels do dirty to check back a set on the river.

I just don't get what hand gets to the river this way though. This flop is sick dry, I would be hating life on the turn if I had an overpair and would probably fold without a VERY specific read since the only draw you could be semi-bluffing got there. But if he has KK, QQ, TT and is getting stubborn on the turn, then I don't think he is folding river since the A is a "scare card". The most likely hand for villan is one with blockers to sets, A7, A5, etc...

The only hand I see you losing to is AA since JJ would ship the turn and it would be hard to get to the river with AA. Just ship the river. If he had a hand like A7, he isn't folding.

[steel108]

Thinking about the hand more, this is an easy ship on the river. By the turn, I would probably fold AA and continue with an A7 type hand since combo wise it is REALLY hard for you to have a set. Since you guys are semi-deep, I wouldn't really put on on a big overpair that was slowplaying. You are going to get called down pretty light here since tbh honest you are repping a VERY narrow range on the flop and if villan has a blocker to one of the sets, he is going to have a hard time believing you.

[cntgetmedown]

Originally Posted by holdemmanager

You are going to get called down pretty light here since tbh honest you are repping a VERY narrow range on the flop and if villan has a blocker to one of the sets, he is going to have a hard time believing you.

I don't think it's that narrow. 99, 55, 77, 68s potentially 97s those are 15 combos. T8s get's there on the turn for 19 combos. And from his perspective I can ocasionally have rivered a flush if I was making a move with air on the flop. Let's give us three flushes here and take out the 97s and we arrive at 20 hand combinations by the river.
Very narrow to me would be less than 10 combos on the flop.

[steel108]

If I was villan, it would be very hard to put you on a straight draw. I assume he respects your game right? If so, I don't see you raising an OESD on the flop and risk getting blown off your hand. Maybe gutters.... It really makes no sense in this spot unless villans are just trying to go out of their way to be aggressive. Maybe it's just me, but I think people are too aggressive on the flop and far too passive on the turn and river.

Edit: I did factor in the back door flush, but the Jh and Ah really reduces the combo of back door bluffs you could have had on the flop, unless it was something like a gutter with a bdfd.

[cntgetmedown]

I dunno, I don't think I mind raising an OESD here with some frequency given stacks. His stacking off range isn't very wide here with this SPR and one of our outs puts a 4-straight on board which I think plays a role when contemplating whether to raise or not. I also don't expect him to 4-bet bluff this board practically ever. it would be a different matter on 972 or 97K. I think it also plays a role that I don't think our value raising range is super narrow when we raise this flop, especially because villain is 2.5xing it preflop and we are 150bb deep.
I respect and like your arguments, but I also think you may be thinking a little too sophisticated for the average reg at these stakes. What I am trying to say is that I don't think it matters so much if we can actually ever have a flush here or not, but that it will factor into villains decision making matrix to a degree that is non-negligible.
I guess this is why I find this spot interesting, because from a game theory perspective our hand is an obvious shove imo, but game theory seems hard to apply in this spot without more history.

[steel108]

Originally Posted by cntgetmedown

I dunno, I don't think I mind raising an OESD here with some frequency given stacks. His stacking off range isn't very wide here with this SPR and one of our outs puts a 4-straight on board which I think plays a role when contemplating whether to raise or not. I also don't expect him to 4-bet bluff this board practically ever. it would be a different matter on 972 or 97K. I think it also plays a role that I don't think our value raising range is super narrow when we raise this flop, especially because villain is 2.5xing it preflop and we are 150bb deep.
I respect and like your arguments, but I also think you may be thinking a little too sophisticated for the average reg at these stakes. What I am trying to say is that I don't think it matters so much if we can actually ever have a flush here or not, but that it will factor into villains decision making matrix to a degree that is non-negligible.
I guess this is why I find this spot interesting, because from a game theory perspective our hand is an obvious shove imo, but game theory seems hard to apply in this spot without more history.

No worries; pick my analysis apart, that's what I want.

How often would you be raising OESD on this flop? To be honest, I'm probably not raising set very often here on the flop. Could be a leak, but I find villans are more hesitant to double barrel me since I have a lot of strong hands in my range on the turn.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

I'd start by betting top set here and since you're worried about what you are just bluff more often in spots like this.

[harangutang]

Seems like an easy shove, he can show up with 2 pair, occasionally worse sets, QQ-KK. Annoying when he shows up with a backdoor flush but I still prefer a shove here.