600NL 3 barrel spot, villain ships

[PlsTilt]

Probably outright spew, but nevertheless I'd like some comments on this hand.

Villain is a good regular makes about 1$/hand over 25k hands I have on him.
22/17/3.2 raises 17% of cbets in position, folds to cbets only 44%
My image is pretty poor at this point if he paid attention, I showed down a few bad hands in a row.

I wouldn't be surprised if he peels twice with 77.

2 questions.
1)Is this a fine spot to barrel (2nd & 3rd)

2) what does villain have? is he turning 77 / 99 into a bluff here often? And if so.. should i just c/f turn given the willingness of villain to play back?

Party Poker $600.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $738.30
BB: $600.00
Hero (UTG): $1140.50
MP: $725.00
CO: $528.95
BTN: $788.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $21, 2 folds, BTN calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($51.00) 6 8 J (2 players)
Hero bets $36.00, BTN calls $36

Turn: ($123.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $96.00, BTN calls $96

River: ($315.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $246.00, BTN raises to $635, Hero folds

[desire]

i dont see any reason why you should barrel here, esp with a bad image

also i think flop bet is kind of small ? (well just slightly)

[alexgotay]

Nothing wrong with giving up

[PlsTilt]

Originally Posted by desire

i dont see any reason why you should barrel here, esp with a bad image

also i think flop bet is kind of small ? (well just slightly)

Yeah flop bet is smallish but I don't make it 40$+ often except against donks with good hands.

The barreling is fairly easy.

I expect him to peel T9, 97, 77, 99, TT, J9 lower flushes.
I expect him to raise sets, nut draws, combo draws (he raises a lot in position, and monsters can be raised perfectly fine vs UTG).

So when we are at the turn I don't think a whole lot of his range can stand a barrel, his range is quite capped. Given my image however I think he might continue weak J's pair+ gs etc
So 2ndbarreling makes the 3c a mandatory third barrel I think.

But I am unsure about my reasoning thats why I post

[baba]

i dont mind 3 barreling or giving up, but i would only do it if you have a good image...

[cntgetmedown]

If he's very good then it would make sense for him to turn 77, 99 into a bluff here. If he expects you to barrel AK, AQ, T9, 97 and possibly fold a decent amount of your strong made hands (otherwise he should just call right). What are you doing here with sets and straights for example? I'd agree that it is kinda scary to barrel somebody who is capable of rebluffing your third barrel profitably. I also think the majority of good players are not going to bluff shove over your third barrel though.
As far as his range goes, I think it's tough to put him on a strong hand here. The way you described villain he's the type that fast plays all his hands on this kind of board textrue, so his range looks very weak made. I also don't know with which frequency he can have an fd here. His range is already reduced to weak fds by the turn. And he will have a hard time turning a profit peeling twice with a weak fd here, though if you c/f every time you miss and a flush card doesn't hit it could be a profitable line, because he gains implied on you bluffing the flush card. Nonetheless I still think his entire range of possible flushes is strongly decreased. 87s is also a hand he might have here that he can turn into a bluff.

[The_End]

If you decide to bet flop you have to barrel at least 2, maybe 3. I would bet flop and turn bigger though. River is probably okay if he doesn't herocall you with Jx.

[PlsTilt]

Originally Posted by cntgetmedown

If he's very good then it would make sense for him to turn 77, 99 into a bluff here. If he expects you to barrel AK, AQ, T9, 97 and possibly fold a decent amount of your strong made hands (otherwise he should just call right). What are you doing here with sets and straights for example? I'd agree that it is kinda scary to barrel somebody who is capable of rebluffing your third barrel profitably. I also think the majority of good players are not going to bluff shove over your third barrel though.
As far as his range goes, I think it's tough to put him on a strong hand here. The way you described villain he's the type that fast plays all his hands on this kind of board textrue, so his range looks very weak made. I also don't know with which frequency he can have an fd here. His range is already reduced to weak fds by the turn. And he will have a hard time turning a profit peeling twice with a weak fd here, though if you c/f every time you miss and a flush card doesn't hit it could be a profitable line, because he gains implied on you bluffing the flush card. Nonetheless I still think his entire range of possible flushes is strongly decreased. 87s is also a hand he might have here that he can turn into a bluff.

Thanks! very comprehensive analysis of the situation. This is what was going through my mind on the river. I didn't see him transform a made hand in a bluff before, so I thought the 3 barrel was fine.

I would snap with top2 and probably AJ as well. I think he does turn a made hand into a bluff here quite frequently and we get good odds.

[The_End]

With that information a 3 barrel is not profitable. You basically say that you're gonna lose against almost his entire range

[edit]

I'm a bit confused actually lol. Does he turn made hands into bluffs frequently, or does he fold them?

[PlsTilt]

Originally Posted by The_End

With that information a 3 barrel is not profitable. You basically say that you're gonna lose against almost his entire range

[edit]

I'm a bit confused actually lol. Does he turn made hands into bluffs frequently, or does he fold them?

I've never seen him do it before and didn't know he was capable. But given his range here and the hand that played out I do suspect, he did turn a made hand into a bluff in this particular hand.

So only in hindsight I can conclude that I'd prefer to play this hand differently. I would vbet top 2 here anyway, and when he'd raise i'd feel confused but make the call because his line is capped and his river range looks very strange.