facing riverraise after overbetting turn

[c0gnAc]

So villain is a pretty good regular, he has been defending more by calling then by 3betting BB vs BU.
We played this hand a few minutes earlier (was the last hand of a breaking table): http://weaktight.com/4305263
he has a pretty low CR vs cbet stat (10% over 420 hands) so his CR range on the flop is probably pretty polarized.
He probably views me as a somewhat solid aggressive type of player.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PartyPoker
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($590.85)
c0gnAc (BTN) ($401.10)
SB ($408)
BB ($443.20)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) c0gnAc is BTN 8 6
1 fold, c0gnAc raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: 4 3 2 ($20, 2 players)
BB checks, c0gnAc bets $15, BB calls $15

Turn: J ($50, 2 players)
BB checks, c0gnAc bets $64, BB calls $64

River: K ($178, 2 players)
BB checks, c0gnAc bets $128, BB goes all-in $355.20, c0gnAc calls $185.10

I was kinda torn about my sizing on the river... I wanted to let him some room to bluffcheckraise but when he did I still didnt love my hand too much since my range is still uncapped when I bet and he knows that, still I think I have to call since my hand is so strong right?

[bw07507]

I can't see him ever not ch/raising Axdd on this flop even with his low ch/r % so I don't see how we can possibly fold. Only hand that beats us that he can have is Jxdd and he prob isn't calling a ton of Jxs where x<9 preflop. So you lose to 2 combos (QJdd, JTdd).

I think river sizing is fine although I might make it smaller b/c there really isn't a whole lot he can hero call u with on this river and its more likely to induce a spaz.

[PlsTilt]

Originally Posted by bw07507

I can't see him ever not ch/raising Axdd on this flop even with his low ch/r % so I don't see how we can possibly fold. Only hand that beats us that he can have is Jxdd and he prob isn't calling a ton of Jxs where x<9 preflop. So you lose to 2 combos (QJdd, JTdd).

I think river sizing is fine although I might make it smaller b/c there really isn't a whole lot he can hero call u with on this river and its more likely to induce a spaz.

Technically there are a few more combo's that can legitimately take this line: A5dd, AJdd and KJdd.
Especially if he's calling quite a bit, he should not 3bet these type of hands.

Even if there are only 5 combo's that have us beat. I can't think of a value hand we beat.
So he'll have to show up with bluffs here 23% of the time thus he roughly needs to be bluffing with 2 hands in this range.

It's not a big mistake to call especially if he's splashy (calling that turn OOP with ATo) or if you want to find out if he's capable of bluff c/r's.

Personally I think it's a pretty poor spot for him to turn a pair into a bluff as our range can be nutted all over the place and his is capped.

[JamesMa]

I call all day until I've only seen flushes for a while