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Old 03-15-2010, 09:25 PM
Godfather
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,441
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Default i feel like i should fold, but i never do

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $402.00
MP: $400.00
CO: $425.15
Hero (BTN): $424.35
SB: $400.50
BB: $426.90

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with Q K
UTG raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $12, 1 fold, BB calls $12

Flop: ($38.00) 3 Q 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $28, Hero calls $28, BB folds

Turn: ($94.00) J (2 players)
UTG bets $60

decent reg, playing 24/19 cbetting with a very high frequency but only double barreling around 50% of the time. I feel like these spots im spewing pretty hard by calling turn/folding river, but folding turn seems sort of weak. If you do call turn, what rivers are you going to call a 3rd barrel on.

Last edited by klink- : 03-15-2010 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 03-15-2010, 10:09 PM
Associate
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 33
Default Re: i feel like i should fold, but i never do

The only hands villain is betting for value that is worse than ours is AJ, assuming he cbets a lot and isn't inclined to c/fold this type of flop OOP, and maybe QTs Both of those will almost certainly be checking the river unimproved, so villain's triple barrel range should include some Ax and connecting spades and AT.

From villain's perspective, the J is a terrible 2 barrel card so even though this villain might cbet a high frequency, there's likely very little random air in his range. If villain good, he might realize that there are a lot of pair + straight draws in your range and be very likely to fire the 3rd barrel with a majority of his turn barreling range on most rivers. Verse this kind of a villain, the call turn/fold river line is pretty bad, but most players at this limit aren't thinking along those lines and many will think that coordinated board = hits oppoents range must be a bad board to fire the 3rd barrel on whiffed spades/AT. I think against a typical 8+ tabling 200NL reg with those stats, the call turn/fold river isn't as bad as theoretically my seem, but against a 16/14 type I fold turn and might even 3bet pre.
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Old 03-16-2010, 05:45 AM
Don
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 540
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Default Re: i feel like i should fold, but i never do

mm, reads on his river barreling freq? If he's not aggro enough to fire the third bullet often enough then I'd call one more. If he is aggro and balanced then I am folding turn.

This is really player dependent. In a vacuum your KQ is crushed when UTG is barreling three streets on a board like this after the flop is 3way. But if the player is either weak or passive I'd play the river. I'd consider jamming a spade river based on his UTG openening tendencies and how light he's looking up river raises. If he's passive I'd call with the intention of folding most river 3barrels.
If he's good / aggro / balanced I am folding the turn near always.
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