JJ raised on K high flop 3bet pot, what's it mean?

[n4rf]

Villain here is a 22/19, and a pretty aggro spazzy reg. I've been 3betting him a lot at the table (believe this is my 3rd time in a short span) as he folds like 68%.

I did have a spot before where he flatted AA to my 3bet BTN vs blind and raised me on a king high flop. I also have a note that he loves to float 3bet pots. His raise cbet in 3bet pots is 27% out of a sample of 11, so it's quite high (although he does fold a decent amount to 3bets, so perhaps it's because his range is tighter)

Hand is twofold, should this flop be checked near always? and is the raise here an easy fold?

I don't think he'd flat AK pre in this spot, but I could be wrong, and I'm not sure if KJ/KQ is in his raising range, but I imagine he'd raise those hands some of the time given the dynamic so far

Full Tilt, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $514.70
BTN: $400
Hero (SB): $402
BB: $964.60
UTG: $477.60
MP: $185.10

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to $12, BTN folds, Hero raises to $44, BB folds, CO calls $32

Flop: ($92) 8 K 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $56, CO raises to $134,

[Branman]

Do you know his approximate winrate?

- If marginal winner/breakeven/small loser:
I'd think he would be failing to get the last bet in with tons of flushdraws and maybe even straight draws and who knows what, so I'd tell you to jam occasionally for balance, check call, check call turns occasionally for balance and generally fold to his raise. This player types range might look like this at its widest;


{AcAh,AdAs,88,55,AhQh,AsQs,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah5h,Ah2h,As2s,KTs+,QhJh,QhTh,QsTs,JhT h,JsTs,Jh9h,Js9s,Th9h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,7h6h,7h5h,6c5c,6h5h,5h4h,5d2d,5h2h,AcKd,AcK h,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs,AhKs,AsKh,KQo,QJo}

You are a 36% favorite vs this range.

- If very large winner
I think it's more likely that his range is some more balanced combination of sets, KT-KQ, combodraws and nut flush draws and some bluffs. It might look like this at its widest range:

{AcAh,AdAs,QQ,88,55,AhQh,AsQs,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah5h,KTs+,7h6h,6s5s,6h5h,5h4h,AcKd, AcKh,AcKs,AdKh,AdKs (some combos), KQo,QJo (for bluffs)}

You are a 25% favorite versus this range

The specific weights of each will be player dependent and I'm skeptical whether a very good answer could be given to this situation without knowing more about the player's situation specific frequencies. But I'm far from the best so who knows. Personally, if it was against a very good player, I'd just fold until I could gather a little more frequency/range info on the villain knowing that it can't be a huge mistake.