Originally Posted by FabledHero
I would check fold river. Our range is really strong and I think it's unlikely he'll turn a weak pair into a bluff because he can't really rep much for value and I think if he thought we did check something like an overpair we're going to c/c.
Also given the board is so dry I think he'll show up with a set a good amount, it's hard for him to peel the turn with a medium pair or show up with some type of air. Betting I think is going to be really bad unless you're bet/calling, because clearly if his range is weak c/c is better than b/f unless if you bet you think he'll bluff raise in which you are betting to induce a bluff however I think that's bad.
i disagree with almost everything in this post:
- Our range isn't that strong we should be betting close to 100% of our range on that flop at like 90% of our range on that turn. (id prob c/f middling pocket pair type hands). Given like 18-20% utg opening range, just stove that and realize it includes a ton of hands (just pokerstove it)
- if he can't rep much for value, why are we check folding? why would he assume we are c/c over pairs? just tons of faulty logic here, which isn't that surprising i think a ton of weaker players don't understand the theory behind spots like this. Our betting range and our checking range directly influence each other. If we are betting all our strong hands, it makes our checking range incredibly weak so it doesn't matter what a player "represents" in this spot when most players are going to have issues check/calling with even the very top of their checking range it makes hands like A5 an easy bluff on the river (there are so many Tx hands and 9x hands that you are folding especially if a hand as strong as KJ is being questioned by most.).
- sets are hard to make, and dry boards are easy to miss. don't ever assume peoples ranges are heavily set weighted if they float dry flops in position.
- i don't understand how you can say hes going to check back cause he can't represent much, yet some how bet/calling a 1 pair hand is good on the river? How does one pussy out and not bluff when checked to by a theoretically much weaker range, then commit to a much more costly bluff shove vs. a much stronger range? it doesn't make any sense.