KJo oop river decision

[FabledHero]

I would check fold river. Our range is really strong and I think it's unlikely he'll turn a weak pair into a bluff because he can't really rep much for value and I think if he thought we did check something like an overpair we're going to c/c.

Also given the board is so dry I think he'll show up with a set a good amount, it's hard for him to peel the turn with a medium pair or show up with some type of air. Betting I think is going to be really bad unless you're bet/calling, because clearly if his range is weak c/c is better than b/f unless if you bet you think he'll bluff raise in which you are betting to induce a bluff however I think that's bad.

[livepokerLOL]

Originally Posted by FabledHero

I would check fold river. Our range is really strong and I think it's unlikely he'll turn a weak pair into a bluff because he can't really rep much for value and I think if he thought we did check something like an overpair we're going to c/c.

Also given the board is so dry I think he'll show up with a set a good amount, it's hard for him to peel the turn with a medium pair or show up with some type of air. Betting I think is going to be really bad unless you're bet/calling, because clearly if his range is weak c/c is better than b/f unless if you bet you think he'll bluff raise in which you are betting to induce a bluff however I think that's bad.

soz i read post few times just wanted to clarify

are you talking about turn or river in last few sentence where i bolded? b/c turn or you mean b/c river as option

[aejones]

id CF rive rbut expect it to go check checkand win a lot

[mootang]

first thought was c/f lol.

people will probably say value bet but just c/f and dont tell anyone could probably be the most profitable line, .

[klink10k]

either bet or c/c river can't really find a c/f given his wide preflop flatting range, low fold to cbet and that board texture/runoff. Most of the time bet, c/c if you think he turns some hands with weak sd value into bluffs assuming you are c/f almost your whole range.

[klink10k]

Originally Posted by FabledHero

I would check fold river. Our range is really strong and I think it's unlikely he'll turn a weak pair into a bluff because he can't really rep much for value and I think if he thought we did check something like an overpair we're going to c/c.

Also given the board is so dry I think he'll show up with a set a good amount, it's hard for him to peel the turn with a medium pair or show up with some type of air. Betting I think is going to be really bad unless you're bet/calling, because clearly if his range is weak c/c is better than b/f unless if you bet you think he'll bluff raise in which you are betting to induce a bluff however I think that's bad.

i disagree with almost everything in this post:

- Our range isn't that strong we should be betting close to 100% of our range on that flop at like 90% of our range on that turn. (id prob c/f middling pocket pair type hands). Given like 18-20% utg opening range, just stove that and realize it includes a ton of hands (just pokerstove it)

- if he can't rep much for value, why are we check folding? why would he assume we are c/c over pairs? just tons of faulty logic here, which isn't that surprising i think a ton of weaker players don't understand the theory behind spots like this. Our betting range and our checking range directly influence each other. If we are betting all our strong hands, it makes our checking range incredibly weak so it doesn't matter what a player "represents" in this spot when most players are going to have issues check/calling with even the very top of their checking range it makes hands like A5 an easy bluff on the river (there are so many Tx hands and 9x hands that you are folding especially if a hand as strong as KJ is being questioned by most.).

- sets are hard to make, and dry boards are easy to miss. don't ever assume peoples ranges are heavily set weighted if they float dry flops in position.

- i don't understand how you can say hes going to check back cause he can't represent much, yet some how bet/calling a 1 pair hand is good on the river? How does one pussy out and not bluff when checked to by a theoretically much weaker range, then commit to a much more costly bluff shove vs. a much stronger range? it doesn't make any sense.

[RunAndGun28]

My initial thought was fold pre and clearly c/f river. I haven't seen any good arguments for any other line.

[Prologion]

Originally Posted by klink-

i disagree with almost everything in this post:

- Our range isn't that strong we should be betting close to 100% of our range on that flop at like 90% of our range on that turn. (id prob c/f middling pocket pair type hands). Given like 18-20% utg opening range, just stove that and realize it includes a ton of hands (just pokerstove it)

- if he can't rep much for value, why are we check folding? why would he assume we are c/c over pairs? just tons of faulty logic here, which isn't that surprising i think a ton of weaker players don't understand the theory behind spots like this. Our betting range and our checking range directly influence each other. If we are betting all our strong hands, it makes our checking range incredibly weak so it doesn't matter what a player "represents" in this spot when most players are going to have issues check/calling with even the very top of their checking range it makes hands like A5 an easy bluff on the river (there are so many Tx hands and 9x hands that you are folding especially if a hand as strong as KJ is being questioned by most.).

- sets are hard to make, and dry boards are easy to miss. don't ever assume peoples ranges are heavily set weighted if they float dry flops in position.

- i don't understand how you can say hes going to check back cause he can't represent much, yet some how bet/calling a 1 pair hand is good on the river? How does one pussy out and not bluff when checked to by a theoretically much weaker range, then commit to a much more costly bluff shove vs. a much stronger range? it doesn't make any sense.

agree with the last paragraph.
The problem with the things you are writing before, that imo our range for betting is stronger than you assume and also his range with which he comes to the river is stronger.

I don`t think that we are betting 90% of our Openingrange on this turn.
At least I would look for some hands with EQ like QCs, FD and str8draws.
The reason for that is that most coldcallranges in CovsUTG are fairly strong (the for example don`t include usually hands like your mentioned A5s) including a decent amount of JJ+_combos, on average (also depends on Hero and players behind).

So imo Hero`s perceived range to come to the river with is decently strong (even KQ gets there) and hence Villain cannot bluffcatch too light.
So it seems too close for me to val.bet here in Hero`s shoes.

[klink10k]

just pokerstove general utg range (lets say 18% hands) and give me the % of hands that don't have some equity vs. a perceived turn call range. I honestly you have no idea what you are talking about, wtf is QCs and wtf does CovsUTG mean? wish i could understand this new age poker lingo

[mootang]

Originally Posted by klink-

- Our range isn't that strong we should be betting close to 100% of our range on that flop at like 90% of our range on that turn. (id prob c/f middling pocket pair type hands). Given like 18-20% utg opening range, just stove that and realize it includes a ton of hands (just pokerstove it)
.

*I went ahead and gave us a 20% opening range, ~218 combos. Now lets assume we bet this flop of 953r with our whole range fair enough. Turn Jd, Turn is a good double barrel and we bet it a lot (for simplicity lets say we bet it with our whole range). A lot of our broadway range has now picked up equity. River T, would have been nice if river bricked off (with our specific hand) but a lot of his range that he thought was beating us on the turn will now have to fold river or attempt to bluff us (a decision we don’t really want w/ our hand). Betting doesn’t seem like the highest EV play.


*Cant name enough worse hands combo wise in comparison to times we are getting value owned if we c/c. I dont think he always turns stuff like 66/77/88 into a bluff because he expects us with Tx+ to bet the river a lot.

In conclusion, c/f>>>betting riv>>>c/c.