KJo oop river decision

[Arvid2k7]

Villian is a solid, kinda breakevenish regular running 24/21/5,6/ call open co 16% / fold2cbet 38% over 634 hands. He probably views me as pretty aggro, but not too out of line.

I prob should have folded pre and prob also check/folded the flop, as he is not folding too much to cbets.

I think his range on the river is pretty strong and I wasn't comfortable valuebetting, but check/folding seems also weak.


Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $577
SB: $168
BB: $200
Hero (UTG): $882
CO: $481.25




Pre-Flop: K J dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $12, CO calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30) 3 5 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, CO calls $20

Turn: ($70) J (2 Players)
Hero bets $51.60, CO calls $51.60

River: ($173.20) T (2 Players)
Hero ?

[JamesMa]

I think a river bet should be okay here 16% call open is pretty loose

[TheStudent]

What sizing is best here and why? What about overbetting?

[polak004]

I'd probably look at other stats here like WTSD and fold to turn/river bets before really deciding what to do. If he's a showdown monkey I'm more likely to bet it otherwise it's probably a fold.

You just triple barreled UTG so your range looks pretty strong and I don't think you'll have 50% against his calling range. If he calls down a lot though he's likely to put you on some kind of busted draw and find any excuse to call in which case hes more likely to hero with 9x or 88 hands.

[c0gnAc]

I bet about 100 allthough its close against some1 with a low WTSD

[Zaza]

given this is U, ez river bet with a better image it becomes closer.

[grogheadflow]

I think our range is way too strong to bet as a default. Check decide.

[Zaza]

Originally Posted by grogheadflow

I think our range is way too strong to bet as a default. Check decide.

wht do u expect to happen when u check here?
whats gonna vager ur decision one or the other way?
Also wouldnt u always bluff this card?

[grogheadflow]

Ya I'd always bluff it, because we don't have too many bluffs. It's not one of those where because we bluff it we need to have a super thin value bet too, there's tons of 2pair+s to balance out our bluffs.

It's probably going to be a check fold from a breakevenish type. He doesn't have any bluffs either. Ya looking at it again almost certainly a check fold, barring the usual caveat where his turning something into a bluff might make it a call, but from a breakeven guy I think not.

[Prologion]

Originally Posted by grogheadflow

Ya I'd always bluff it, because we don't have too many bluffs. It's not one of those where because we bluff it we need to have a super thin value bet too, there's tons of 2pair+s to balance out our bluffs.

It's probably going to be a check fold from a breakevenish type. He doesn't have any bluffs either. Ya looking at it again almost certainly a check fold, barring the usual caveat where his turning something into a bluff might make it a call, but from a breakeven guy I think not.

pretty much this imo.
Tbh it is here imo very clear that vs. most REGs you do not have here a val.bet on the river with those posis and perceived ranges... - wonder a bit how so many ppl could have advocated a val.bet there, tbh.