Overbet Into My Perceived Strong Range

[grogheadflow]

Villain is 25/20, cbets 75% and 70% over a smallish sample. He's like lifetime breakeven over 500k hands.

History, literally 2 hands before the next or something:

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $400
CO: $460.70
BTN: $712.05
SB: $400
Hero (BB): $406
UTG: $400

Pre-Flop: J T dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN raises to $10, SB folds, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($22) 9 7 K (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $17.55, Hero raises to $54, BTN calls $36.45

Turn: ($130) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $80, Hero calls $80

River: ($290) A (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $568.05 and is All-In, Hero calls $262 and is All-In

Results: $814 Pot
BTN showed K K and WON $306.05 (-$99.95 NET)
Hero showed J T and WON $811 (+$409 NET)

^ Ya, I know, don't ask!


He'd also 4bet called off JJ in a dubious spot UTG-sb earlier in the session to my KK, he might be tilted.

Then this:

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $396
BB: $460.70
UTG: $406
CO: $400
Hero (BTN): $809

Pre-Flop: Q K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $12, CO folds, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) 2 4 Q (2 Players)
UTG bets $19.90, Hero calls $19.90

Turn: ($69.80) J (2 Players)
UTG bets $56.95, Hero calls $56.95

River: ($183.70) K (2 Players)
UTG bets $317.15 and is All-In

Results: $183.70 Pot ($183.70 Rake)
UTG showed and LOST (-$88.85 NET)
Hero showed Q K and LOST (-$88.85 NET)


Call, or no call?

[RPerfumo]

With that history, I don't see any reason not to call. I mean, in his state of mind, he could be valuebetting a 2...

[JamesMa]

hmm perfumo he wasnt value betting his KK, I am thinking he turned it into a bluff and is merging a lot of hands with sd value.

Hand 2 is kinda weird cuz im not sure if he's tilted or not but the J/K does hit your Qx range pretty hard so not a great bluffing situation and u have a pretty good payoff wizard image so i like a fold

[PlsTilt]

mm

if we're folding KQ here.. then we're only calling JJ/22/44 i guess?

His jam with the Kings indicates to me he isn't scared of big bluffs.
Back to his line, it's a pretty scary river overbet from UTG:

Hand 0: 30.660% 24.06% 06.60% 51 14.00 { KQo }
Hand 1: 69.340% 62.74% 06.60% 133 14.00 { JJ+, 44, 22, ATs, KJs+, T9s, KQo }


If my math isn't completely wrong we need 38% equity for a B/E call. In a vacuum fold is best line, there are too many nutted hands. However, I don't mind a look up for metagame reasons.. best for you to decide based on his other tendencies against you. (likeliness of overbet bluffing in particular) he might show up with some missed diamond draw or a weird AK.

[RPerfumo]

Originally Posted by JamesMa

hmm perfumo he wasnt value betting his KK, I am thinking he turned it into a bluff and is merging a lot of hands with sd value.

Hand 2 is kinda weird cuz im not sure if he's tilted or not but the J/K does hit your Qx range pretty hard so not a great bluffing situation and u have a pretty good payoff wizard image so i like a fold

If he is merging ranges in the river, it would be pretty retarded for me since he is only trying to make fold worse 3 combos: QsJs, QsTs and perhaps 5s4s.

[vinivici9586]

i think a big difference between these two hands is position. in 1 we're facing an UTG raise and in 2 its a button raise. also, hand-reading wise we kind of look exactly like KQ in hand 2, so i think i like a fold.

[grogheadflow]

I folded. Glad i'm not crazy.

[Prologion]

yeah, your perceived rnage is rly strong here and for him to targe hands like AQ from your range, he does not have to overbet here.
So looks like an overbet here for value due to your perceived strong range on the river,
So I like the fold, even though KQ is likely the best bluffcatcher (blockingwise) here...