QQ 3Way Squeezed Pot

[grogheadflow]

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($524.12)
CO ($866.67)
BTN ($591.55)
SB ($409.53)
grogheadflow (BB) ($422)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) grogheadflow is BB Q Q
UTG raises to $12, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12, 1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $52, UTG folds, CO calls $40, BTN calls $40

Flop: 7 8 2 ($170, 3 players)
grogheadflow bets $88, CO folds, BTN calls $88

Turn: 10 ($346, 2 players)

Final Pot: $346

Ok so CO is a huge fish, 79/5 over 100 hands or so. Villain is 'ArtPlaie' a Stars.FR sponsored pro. He's 28/23, only folded 28% to cbets in single raised pots but only 18 samples.

So I feel fucked by my hand's lack or relative strength once I cbet this 3way into the uberfish. CF, CC, or shove?

[vinivici9586]

i don't think you have to be that strong to cbet here. board is low enough that you should expect a reasonable amount of fold equity vs suited broadways/some pairs.

i wish the fish were a bit more aggro, so we could expect villain to 3bet 88/1010, but as is he has a set/2pr pretty often. theres obv no reason for him to ever raise the flop with a nutted hand.

i certainly wouldn't c/c, so its shove 282 into 346 or c/f. my cop-out answer is that if you think he's good then c/f, and if you think he's bad then shove. also, if he thinks you're bad (or just crazy) then shove.

[grogheadflow]

He's a good winner, albeit on a site with poor players. As for never CC in our shoes, there has to be an eventual level where assuming villain thinks us to be good, he would expect that once we check this turn we are check folding JJ+ pretty often giving all the assumptions. This leads me to think that shoving OESDs, GSs, and even 8x/7x must be decent in his shoes, which of course leads eventually to our potential CC?

[vinivici9586]

yeah, that's definitely true. i play limits where people aren't really capable of that play, so when i am facing an unknown reg in this spot at 100 or 200, i'm pretty confident with a c/f on the turn because that's the most +EV (in this case being neutral) play vs an average 100 or 200nl player.

at the very least, considering a c/c on the turn is good for overall poker education because it represents good logic that goes against standard 2p2 mantra (which would be to always just shove yourself or c/f in this spot).

[RPerfumo]

With such a drooler involved, Iwant to put more money preflop. 64 will be my min size here.

[PlsTilt]

i don't think villain's range is that strong, we're ahead a good amount of the time.

With the fish entering the pot he definitely has a lot more suited connectors, pairs broadways.
He'll call with a lot of pairs / T9, 89s type hands on the flop.

When we shove turn he'll hardly ever look us up with worse, but checking makes the hand v hard to play against his range.

If we know a little bit more about his floating / stabbing tendencies we can check/fold play a river. But it will be hard to go bet-check-bet on this board.
There is just not a lot more value in this hand than him bluffing at it.. the board and range i'd assign to him leave him with SD hands with some gs/oesd/2p equity that will try showdown cheaply.

Personally in such a spot I just jam and take down the 340$ rather than play the guessing game OOP. It's a good thing the spades turned, we'll end up jamming some draws here as well.