river bluff?

[dougiedan678]

Villian is a breakeven/slightly losing reg over a large sample who plays like 12 tables or somethng. Ive not played with him much so no real history.

I should be betting the rriver here right ? If so then what size ? is jamming > betting 180 or something ?



Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $104.35
Hero (CO): $447.60
BTN: $200
SB: $589
BB: $431.95
UTG: $343.25

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $6.30, BTN folds, SB raises to $21.30, Hero calls $16

Flop: ($47.80) A 8 Q (2 Players)
SB bets $30, Hero calls $30

Turn: ($107.80) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $76, Hero calls $76

River: ($259.80) J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets ?? (310 eff)

[steel108]

Gross spot.

I don't think he ever checks JJ sets +, but we don't know if he folds 2 pair here. I think you have to overbet shove here to make him fold a chop (I'm assuming he folds AK 100%) and maybe a 2 pair that 3B light. A lot depends on how he thinks about poker though.

[TopperH]

I believe shoving maximizes your FE with quite a lot. When he checks he clearly does not think he can valuebet his hand, and you very rarely have a missed draw on this board, so your range is semistrong made hands , and when you shove it will be either the straight or nothing. Since it is very difficult for you to have nothing in this spot i think a shove is fine... it will work quite a lot. I actually posted a hand very similar a few days ago where i think i should have shoved the river but i'm not sure.

[dougiedan678]

sorry this is 200nl I just noticed, move it if need be.

thanks for responses guys.

[fearless]

vs described villain i dont like a bluff at all and think the turn peel might be a little thin. i think he definitely bluffcatches some better hands vs a smaller bet, so if you bluff i think it should be all in