River decision - 3b pot with weak TP

[hredunos]

Villain is mid/high stakes regular. Nowadays he plays mostly SH, but he used to play also NL HU matches in the past.
We have started some tables before, so he knows me.
He opens almost every BTN. 100bb deep vs 3b he calls some hands (not very wide range) and 4-bets a lot (also AJo ). Im not sure how he plays 125bb deep. He likes to float flop in 3b pot.
I'm thinking that he calls flop very wide - overcards with backdoor flush draws (QcJc QdJd, KsJs etc), 78s, many Tx.
He is capable of many things (calling down here 6x occasionally) but I'm not sure about his turn and river frequencies.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
Hero ($514)
Villain ($705)

Dealt to Hero K 2

Villain raises to $10, Hero raises to $35.50, Villain calls $25.50

FLOP ($71) 5 T 6

Hero bets $40.50, Villain calls $40.50

TURN ($152) 5 T 6 K

Hero bets $87, Villain calls $87

RIVER ($326) 5 T 6 K 4

Hero ?

[ultrasPNT]

Im not sure how he plays 125bb deep

I would guess he plays similar to 100bbs deep.

He is capable of many things (calling down here 6x occasionally)

This makes it an easy valuebet on the river.

[lancelott_]

a 4 is like second best card after a 3, maybe a 5, from river cards that dont improve you.
You wanna be able to bluff here with Q9/QJ/AJ/98/J9 on the river a decent freq (just becuase King hits your precieved range that much better), so bet-betting turn/river and vbetting Kx is mandatory HU, esp vs someone you assume might make a few herocalls every now and than (tons of Tx/77/88/6x combos that can call this river bet over 50%+ to be good)
Sizing wise - probably something like 200-210$
If he jams its going to be tougher/interesting spot (since it is probably closer to botton of our river vbetting range - JJ/QQ/K2s, we might wanna fold)

[RPerfumo]

How does he play TP in that flop? Against the majority of villains, I would shove this river. Its necessary to protect your range.

[natarish]

Originally Posted by lancelott_

a 4 is like second best card after a 3, maybe a 5, from river cards that dont improve you.
You wanna be able to bluff here with Q9/QJ/AJ/98/J9 on the river a decent freq (just becuase King hits your precieved range that much better), so bet-betting turn/river and vbetting Kx is mandatory HU, esp vs someone you assume might make a few herocalls every now and than (tons of Tx/77/88/6x combos that can call this river bet over 50%+ to be good)
Sizing wise - probably something like 200-210$
If he jams its going to be tougher/interesting spot (since it is probably closer to botton of our river vbetting range - JJ/QQ/K2s, we might wanna fold)

Couldnt agree with you anymore. you left out AQ, another hand to bluff with.
i think its a great flop to float on. From Villian perspective, its a great flop to bet wide and thus he will float you more often.
i think it depends on you as a player. if you like to leave value out there or you extract every bit of it. does he floats the turn? does he call down really light? would he call with Ace high here?
if you know answer too those questions you can decide to chk or bet..

[JamesMa]

+EV river jam I think even without all the thoughts about balance.

[siac0]

You mention his ranges, you don't mention how he perceives you... Unless he thinks your a nit, aren't value betting light, don't like to fire multiple barrells with air, etc, etc, then it seems like a value shove to me.

[jakeschindler]

if hes floating heaps i like a c/c as there arent many 6x's in his range and he will likely value bet Tx
"3b he calls some hands (not very wide range)" would he rip in qj's ott?

[siac0]

Originally Posted by jakeschindler

if hes floating heaps i like a c/c as there arent many 6x's in his range and he will likely value bet Tx

If he has Tx he's going to call a river bet much more than he's going to value bet it when checked to I think, making betting better. If I did check the river I'd probably be c/f as I think he checks back Tx so often and it's hard for him to get to the river with air.

[KnexFtw]

Originally Posted by JamesMa

+EV river jam I think even without all the thoughts about balance.

+1 this is the nut turn barrell card so he can get hero cally otr.