Turn line in 3-bet pot?

[DODGYKEN]

I think villian's defending range here is something like suited broadways, pairs to 88, and maybe 98s. He 4-bets a decent amount so some big pairs will be discounted. The only history I have with him is that he raised an AT3cc board in a 3-bet pot in position and I folded.

What's my best play on this turn? Qx obviously makes up a decent amount of his preflop range (and flop calling range). I feel like JJ-88 may well call again on this turn as he'll expect me to be barrelling Ax a lot, and he might even call again with his AJ/ATs if he floated the flop. So this makes me want to triple barrel, but he'll also have quite a few hands he's going with so I'm not sure how good a plan this is. Then if I check and he bets I think I have to check fold, but I'm not too happy about check folding with decent equity.


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($400)
CO ($441)
BTN ($751)
SB ($155.40)
Hero ($400)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is BB A 5
2 folds, BTN raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $38, BTN calls $28

Flop: 3 Q 4 ($78, 2 players)
Hero bets $36, BTN calls $36

Turn: 5 ($150, 2 players)
Hero ($326)?

[DirtySanchez80]

i think the hand is to weak to c/c the turn b/c i see a lot of players betting Qx but also underpairs on the turn. If u think he wont vbet that thin / or bet for protection ever than i'd c/c..

if he's somewhat str8forward/tight postflop i also think it has merrits to bet the turn to fold out underpairs

[Irishman07]

You've got probably about 20% equity vs Qx + middle pocket pairs since your 9 outs are mainly clean vs those hands. Then it depends on how often you think he'll slowplay a big pair here, if he'll defend small pairs 22-55 and how often he'll float. From what you've said it seems like his 3bet defending range may be a bit tight so I might think he'll fold the smallest pairs and if he 4bets a lot big pairs will be a smaller portion of his range as well - which is good for you because that means he's got a smaller range of hands he's definitely stacking off with relative to hands he may fold (medium pairs and floats).

So now you've just gotta decide if you can get him to fold enough hands to make barreling profitable. I'd say if you do bet turn it's probably gonna be best to fire river as well unless he's the type that is gonna fold all floats/mid pairs on turn so by the river his range just isn't folding much. The more you think he's calling the flop with stuff like AJ or A10 the more inclined I"d be to just fire away since by the river you can almost always get him to fold enough of the times to make it profitable.

I'm a stat guy so the key stats for me here are stuff like fold to cbet, fold to turn barrel, fold to river barrel, WTSD, bet when checked to on turn. Obviously the more he folds to barrels and the lower his WTSD is the more likely I"m just gonna barrel t/r whereas if hes a station I'd probably just c/f the turn since our equity isn't great unless he's floating a ton.

[pokerswans]

Originally Posted by Irishman07

The more you think he's calling the flop with stuff like AJ or A10 the more inclined I"d be to just fire away since by the river you can almost always get him to fold enough of the times to make it profitable..

you beat those hands... in fact u have them quite crushed.

i think if you check, you kinda have to check fold since you dont have equity vs his value betting range and i think its pretty terrible flop to float with AJ type hands. bet fold is better i think just because you keep the lead, he can fold better (sometimes he folds 77/88 figuring you wouldnt 2barrel a 'bad' 2barrel card), and you prevent yourself being bluffed off a hand with some equity in the pot.

[baba]

Originally Posted by pokerswans

you beat those hands... in fact u have them quite crushed.

i think its pretty terrible flop to float with AJ type hands. .

Not sure i really agree with this. How often are you betting the turn here with air as the preflop 3better? Its a spot where alot of players bet flop and give up on the turn if called.

[grogheadflow]

Any Q on the flop when someone flats a 3bet OOP is a disaster for bluffing. Stove a typical OOP flatting range, mid PPs sure, but AQ KQ QJs QTs etc, whereas for example say we're looking at a K high flop then AK is out as it gets 4bet, KJs actually gets flatted less than QJs, etc. I can't remember the exact number, but I worked it out once, and when a Q hits the flop then villain has paired top pair around 57% of the time. Once he calls the flop, this shoots to around 85%.

Also by betting the turn after betting the flop we're ceding right of last initiative, plus by betting the flop VS an AQ or bluff that's going to CR we lose out on our 1/13 chance to bink a 2 and win all the money. I'd look to check the flop and look to get the last bet in somewhere else along the line depending on various cards.

[baba]

im alittle confused by what your saying because no one flatted a 3bet oop here?

[TheLuskenator]

I'd look to check the flop and look to get the last bet in somewhere else along the line depending on various cards.

and

Any Q on the flop when someone flats a 3bet OOP is a disaster for bluffing

does not compute

[grogheadflow]

Originally Posted by baba

im alittle confused by what your saying because no one flatted a 3bet oop here?

Hmm, fine, in that case I really really dislike 3betting this particular hand in this position. What I said about flats OOP is still true though, it's not like we can't deal in hypotheticals when the whole point is to discuss and learn.

Originally Posted by TheLuskenator

does not compute

Again I'm dealing in hypotheticals. A queen on the flop usually is a disaster.... but given we're trying to win the pot then I'd rather do it with right of last initiative in mind.

[harangutang]

I'd c/f the turn, I don't think you have enough equity to continue with bet or check/call especially since 2 isn't exactly a gin card.