25 nl river decision

[heAdstroMan]

villan is pretty tight, 20/16 over 1.2k hands, fold to 3bet 83%, and 4bet 0%, so i just felt that flatting JJ was best here because he folds to alot of 3bets and his calling range is much stronger than JJ since he never 4balls and im oop.

flop turn standard. can i jam the river? like im not sure he calls jam with QJ. is his range always KX here by the river? i would assume he ships TT and 33 at some point b4 river.

Party, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $9
Hero (SB): $25
BB: $25
UTG: $28.97
CO: $28

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO raises to $0.85, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) J 3 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.40, Hero raises to $4.45, CO calls $3.05

Turn: ($10.85) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $5.65, CO calls $5.65

River: ($22.15) 9 (2 Players)
Hero ?????

[dougiedan678]

its pretty close, Im not really indifferent to jamming or c/f ing.

Leaning towards jamming becoz people like to call down.

[Running Like God]

Hmmm.... I'm really not keen on the shove. I would rather be making the turn more like $8. If he's calling this then I'm definitely putting him on Kx, and giving credit.

[Donkadocus]

Wow - please tell me you 3bet this guy 100% of the time.

His flop range is probably AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33 - maybe AK, KQ, AQ sometimes. QT, KT very rarely.

Turn range, almost the same imo.

River I really prefer c/f.

[dudu]

Why are we c/r ing flop?

as played I c/c river cos he rarely calls with worse but may bluff if we let him

[heAdstroMan]

Originally Posted by dudu

Why are we c/r ing flop?

as played I c/c river cos he rarely calls with worse but may bluff if we let him

because we have top set in a single raised pot and c/r is the only way 2 get 200bbs in the middle on 3 streets. imp

he checks back river with all showdown hands, everything got there so i doubt he will bluff.

[dudu]

Originally Posted by heAdstroMan

he checks back river with all showdown hands, everything got there so i doubt he will bluff.

yeah- after thinking about it, he has no reason to bluff river here

I think i'd jam as played

[Running Like God]

Maybe I just need to really work on my game, because I see so many hands that beat us here. 89 might make a hero call, a king is for sure, and even the flush got there. I'd quite happily be calling the flop w/AKh, and O' the straight made it on the turn. So, why jam?

[Donkadocus]

If we jam we are turning our hand into a bluff to fold out exactly QQ and maybe a 9 some small % of the time.

I doubt he will bluff if checked to.

I really think check fold is best.

[Sheepy_Mcfollow]

I 2nd Running Like God's motion for betting the turn bigger, at least $8. It's not like you're ever bluffing here so there's no need to make it smaller to keep ur bluffs cheaper, and i think literally 100% of the hands he calls flop raise with call a bigger turn bet as well.

River is def a ck/fold imo. He vv rarely folds better and against an extremely optimistic calling range...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

62 games 0.005 secs 12,400 games/sec

Board: Jc 3s Th Qh 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.871% 33.87% 00.00% 21 0.00 { JdJh }
Hand 1: 66.129% 66.13% 00.00% 41 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, AhJh, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }

And i doubt he bluffs river often enough to make us exploitable or whatever, it's not like the guys gonna think "ZOMG i can make him fold a set here" when u have half a psb left and no-one folds sets ever.