[50NL 6m] KK in 3bet pot, turn decision

[Aerschtuner]

Stats from villain:



Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($51.58)
BB ($44.21)
UTG ($106)
UTG+1 ($45.83)
CO ($102)
BTN ($116)

Dealt to Hero K K

UTG raises to $2, fold, fold, BTN calls $2, Hero raises to $8, fold, UTG calls $6, BTN calls $6

FLOP ($24.50) Q 9 6

Hero bets $12.50, UTG calls $12.50, BTN folds

TURN ($49.50) Q 9 6 A

Hero ??? (I have ~30$ behind here)

[hahaxD]

I think I'll just CF here.

He's not folding to 3bets all too often (though sample is small), so it seems like his calling range for flop (note that he's passive) could be something like JQ-AQ, 66, 99 (-JJ, maybe). Could be some suited connectors (TJs for instance), but I doubt it.

So turn is terrible. I'm never taking flushes into account in 3bet pots, so I don't care the ace is of spades. I do not see though how we can bet the turn for value here. The only thing I see him play for stacks is QxJs (can't be QxKs, because you have the Ks). We'll town ourselves against AQ and sets and possibly made flushes.

If we check, he'll check behind all his queens and since you have the Ks you have no reason for protecting your hand. Also there is no way a passive guy like this will bluff you out of the pot, so no shame in folding to a bet.

I wanna get to showdown, without paying for it.

[Fuzzy Logic]

QQ/99/66 all raise flop and AQ some % of the time. I think c/c is prolly my preferred line to allow him to bet all his bluffs. Shoving here serves v.little purpose as no worse hands call imo. If he has AQ I doubt he folds it.

[DAiMONiON]

cbet 18$ for value.
cc turn, by then u have the odds to call. about 25% equity.
cf river if unimproved, cc if we did not get allin on turn.

[hahaxD]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy Logic

QQ/99/66 all raise flop and AQ some % of the time. I think c/c is prolly my preferred line to allow him to bet all his bluffs. Shoving here serves v.little purpose as no worse hands call imo. If he has AQ I doubt he folds it.

Bet all his bluffs? Wut?! You're saying he could be floating the flop? With what?!

A set is a lot more likely to call the flop than to raise it, because there's someone behind him he doesnt wanna scare out of the pot (though he'll either call or fold probably anyways).

CC turn looks pretty terrible too. What is he betting that we have beat?

[Aerschtuner]

Originally Posted by marinus

cbet 18$ for value.
cc turn, by then u have the odds to call. about 25% equity.
cf river if unimproved, cc if we did not get allin on turn.

I cbet half pot to set up a turn shove. As the turn is pretty awfull for my hand, but brings me the nut fd, can I still shove? Check/call is evil here imo and bet fold is no option. So its check/fold or shove imo.

[Aerschtuner]

10/20 reg on my MSN:

Gilbert zegt (11:42):
CS turn
so check call

Damn.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Originally Posted by hahaxD

Bet all his bluffs? Wut?! You're saying he could be floating the flop? With what?!

A set is a lot more likely to call the flop than to raise it, because there's someone behind him he doesnt wanna scare out of the pot (though he'll either call or fold probably anyways).

CC turn looks pretty terrible too. What is he betting that we have beat?

Lots of TAG players IP can quite easily call our flop bet in 3 bet pots as our range is wayyyy more defined than theirs is. So his calling range includes

1) worse made hands like 88/TT/JJ/Qx
2) draws like 78, TJ, some flush draws
3) hands that beat us 66/99/QQ/AA

1) I would expect all worse made hands like 88/TT/JJ and KQ/QJ/QT and sometimes AQ to be checking behind trying to get to SD.
2) draws like 78/TJ and flush draws I expect them to bet when we check as its harder for us to have a flush than villain
3) All these hands are raising that flop >90% of the time imo purely as the flop is so wet, even in 3bet pots.

Out of the 3parts of his range, I expect villain to raise the flop more often with 2) and 3) which weights his range more towards 1. He will fold all worse hands if we shove flop but may bet when checked to thus check calling is my preferred line.

*note- I have not included pure air hands like a 44/9T type hand that he is turning into a bluff. To give a more reasoned response to situations like this, some read on how villain likes to play their draws/big hands on wet boards would be required.

[DAiMONiON]

Originally Posted by Aerschtuner

10/20 reg on my MSN:

Gilbert zegt (11:42):
CS turn
so check call

Damn.

is this check / shove?

[Aerschtuner]

yes