50NL - 88 vs river raise

[DRUK88]

5 handed:
V is 26/24 over 4k hands in effective CO (CO VPIP/PFR = 29/28).

10% 3b, 67% 3b, 46% fold to cb.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($61.19)
Hero ($104)
UTG ($67.91)
CO ($50.75)
BTN ($88.77)

Dealt to Hero 8 8

fold, CO raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1

FLOP ($3.25) 3 6 6

Hero checks, CO checks

TURN ($3.25) 3 6 6 4

Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

RIVER ($7.25) 3 6 6 4 Q

Hero bets $4.50, CO raises to $10, Hero ??

[TheStudent]

Pretty easy fold imo at 50nl. If he checks behind flop and calls turn, I think his plan is to bluffcatch very often with AK, AQ, 55 or something like that. (that's also why you bet the river right, to get value from those hands) Don't see why he would turn his bluffcatcher into a bluff, I think he is way more likely to just call. If he turns his hand into a bluff, good for him. Also realize, he doesn't know you fold 88 here, so why would he raise AK/55?

[DRUK88]

Do you not think he can be wider than that on the turn?

Do you think he raises Qx for value on the river?

Also, given how aggro he is, do u expect him to not cbet flop with trips, then only call turn?

I'm interested in what people think his river raising range is?

[TheStudent]

No not really tbh, maybe a slowplayed quads/trips etc, but that's it. Yes I think he raises Qx on the river, simply since he is likely to have a good kicker. He would be really bad if he doesn't raise AQ for example. He prob c-bets with trips, but regs do strange things sometimes with the nuts. When I see a weird line from a reg, it's very often for value. I mean yes, his valuerange is very narrow, but I simply don't see them bluffing in this spot.

[JohnniePunani]

Why are we turning our hand into a bluff on the river? This value bet is way too thin imo unless his went to showdown is ridic high

[DRUK88]

Originally Posted by JohnniePunani

Why are we turning our hand into a bluff on the river? This value bet is way too thin imo unless his went to showdown is ridic high

How is this too thin?

He cannot have a higher pair, and the Q can be perceived to be a bluff card in the eyes of the V.

[JohnniePunani]

It's too thin because he doesn't have many worse hands in his range that are going to realistically call a river bet. 22 55 and 77 MAYBE so a river bet gets looked up by better and folds out worse far more often than gets called by worse...unless of course you are attempting to induce in which case this call is a snap. I doubt A hi is going to look you up here...it might raise.

The thing about his river range is it folds or raises WAY more often than calls and his raising range is polarized and we dont have a strong enough hand to value bet vs. the middle part cause the middle part (namely 22 55 77) is way too small.

So a bet to induce raises is fine if you that's what you intend but a pure value bet is simply too thin to get 'just called.'

[JohnniePunani]

On second thought his range might be completely polarized on the river because he probably cbets 22/55/77

[Anthony18]

I'd just fold river readless.

When checks back flop and calls turn he has SV so if he thinks your are bluffing on the river he'll call imo - no need to raise, also his sizing makes it really hard for him to be bluffing, I think he has AQ here quite a bit trying so milk some extra value from your PPs.

One option which could be good is 3betting the river, his range is capped to basically AQ and you can rep some boats and shit though at 50NL I think we kinda need a read that he is not a regfish to make stupid calls with like KQ so all in all I think folding is pretty much our only option given all the info we have.

[TheStudent]

3bet to let him fold Qx is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too advanced imo.