50nl: river 2 pair facing 3rd barrel

[Maximus13]

Originally Posted by EyeAmFirReel

I tend to agree w/ this.

Though I'm not sure how much their SB opening stat plays into this, no real frame of reference/understanding. If the stat indicates villain is opening a lot of KT/QT, I suppose it's ok, but then villain is def opening all pp's in that case as well.

The only legit value hand we beat that villain bets 3 streets w/ is AA it seems like.

Does the SB open stat really take precedence over the fact this is a pretty nitty 17/13?

I totally understand what your saying but don't you think we should jam, and just put the ball in his court per say, allowing him room to make a mistake and call down to light?

I mean I would expect him to have more k10s in his range then a hand like j9, and as far as sets to say we shouldn't raise because he could have a set just seems a little weak tight to me.

[AKmaert]

it's not thin at all, especially given it looks a bit bluffy and your hand is disguised and you are bvb.

This imo

[iwinmorepots]

I'd rather call, I think its marginal and the future EV of seeing his hand is probably better then the EV you get by shoving and him folding a lot.

[robbyd86]

really the only two pairs he can have is QT and KT and we have blockers for those.

[EyeAmFirReel]

Originally Posted by robbyd86

really the only two pairs he can have is QT and KT and we have blockers for those.

Right???

It seems quite the convoluted scenario that our opponent just happens to hit the perfect turn/river to keep firing whilst we hit the perfect turn/river to stack their miracle catch. We're working off the belief that everyone involved hit their perfect card at the perfect time. Not inconceivable, but long term, is it likely/+EV? It seems like we may be bluff catching, as odd as that is to say w/ runner/runner (hidden) top two (strong hand), a fair amount of the time?

How under repped/disguised our hand is, is the tough/confusing part for me, but what is our villains value range on the river here the majority of the time? When I ask myself that question, I'm totally lost tbh.

If they're bluffing, they're not calling.

Two pair might call, might not... our line would look really strong to anyone competent + we have blockers to some of the likeliest combo's.

AA should fold.

Sets call.

Straights call (though unlikely).

[robbyd86]

Ok I stoved what i think his range is that would also call us, or potentially call us light if we raise. I forgot about AK previously, i think he barells sometimes w/ it and sometime not so i took out about half the combos AK. I guess our equity is good enough to merit a shove in this spot, unless i'm missing something. Only thing is i don't know how light we'll get looked up, it really depends on our image, how many tables he's playing and how capable he is of reading hands and able to lay down AK or AA and such. So if that's the case see the bottom example where we are only 48%.

if villain calls down "light"

35 games 0.005 secs 7,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 6d 2s Kc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.857% 62.86% 00.00% 22 0.00 { KhQs }
Hand 1: 37.143% 37.14% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 66, 22, AKs, AcJc, AdJd, KTs, QTs, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, KTo, QTo }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

if villain folds "big" hands

25 games 0.005 secs 5,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 6d 2s Kc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.000% 48.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { KhQs }
Hand 1: 52.000% 52.00% 00.00% 13 0.00 { KK-QQ, TT, 66, 22, AcJc, AdJd, KTs, QTs, KTo, QTo }

I doubt many ppl fold two pair at this limit in this spot so I didn't bother messing w/ that.

[Sheepy_Mcfollow]

I'd take out some of the combos of TK as well personally, ime nits don't tend to keep barreling when an overcard hits, they much prefer the check call. Also if we are gonna assume he can even have AJ, then it's logical to include J9 in his range as well, no? Why does he barrel turn with an over + gutty but not an OESD?

[Maximus13]

This is def a 60/40 spot imo, making it a leak not to shove.

[robbyd86]

I think i only included AJdd which he would likely barrel w FD/SD

[Probability]

Originally Posted by dougiedan678

I would jam.

agree