50nl: river 2 pair facing 3rd barrel

[Paced]

Is shoving here a bit thin? Villain is a 17/13 but raise first in sb is 23

Hero (BB): $80.20
UTG: $63.13
MP: $46.00
CO: $50.00
BTN: $25.17
SB: $50.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q K
4 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) T 6 2 (2 players)
SB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.00) Q (2 players)
SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($18.00) K (2 players)
SB bets $14.50, Hero

[robbyd86]

You have a very disguised hand and he can have QT or possibly KT. I think it's a bit thin though since he's pretty nitty. w/o post flop reads it's probably just a call.... but i think maybe tomorrow i'll play around w/ poker stove a bit and disect it some more.

[Maximus13]

I'm not sure its kinda thin in the aspect I can't see much worse that he would call us with but at the same time, I dont see to many hands out there beat us. So I think we can shove here in hopes that he looks us up light.

[preflopjitters]

I would just think that whatever he fires 3 barrels with is fairly strong, and he only calls a jam with what beats us with how the board ran out.

[dudu]

I think he's got a worse 2pair more often than a set or a rivered straight, so i'm probably jamming this on the river.

[heAdstroMan]

id just jam the river for value, call is fine also!

[BigCheesy]

it's not thin at all, especially given it looks a bit bluffy and your hand is disguised and you are bvb.

[EyeAmFirReel]

Originally Posted by preflopjitters

I would just think that whatever he fires 3 barrels with is fairly strong, and he only calls a jam with what beats us with how the board ran out.

I tend to agree w/ this.

Though I'm not sure how much their SB opening stat plays into this, no real frame of reference/understanding. If the stat indicates villain is opening a lot of KT/QT, I suppose it's ok, but then villain is def opening all pp's in that case as well.

The only legit value hand we beat that villain bets 3 streets w/ is AA it seems like.

Does the SB open stat really take precedence over the fact this is a pretty nitty 17/13?

[dudu]

Originally Posted by preflopjitters

I would just think that whatever he fires 3 barrels with is fairly strong, and he only calls a jam with what beats us with how the board ran out.

worse 2pair hands?

[dougiedan678]

I would jam.