50nl riverspot in 3betpot

[jjooeeyy]

Villain is 27/23 over 200 hands. Have folded to 93% of 3bets so far. But had 3bet him alot this session so he might be calling a little bit wider pre.

(4 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (BB): €100.50
BTN: €55.42
SB: €50.75

SB posts SB €0.25, Hero posts BB €0.50

Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has J J

fold, SB raises to €1.50, Hero raises to €4.50, SB calls €3.00

Flop: (€9.00, 2 players) 5 3 8
SB checks, Hero bets €4.78, SB calls €4.78

Turn: (€18.56, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero bets €10.00, SB calls €10.00

River: (€38.56, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero ???

Are we jaming river for value? The Q issn't a good card because its def possible he floats AQ a fair bit, and mabye som combos of KQ aswell. I kinda doubt he has some 8x, but shouldn't be ruled out given that he probably was a bit annoyed that I 3bet him alot. And given that the 8 paired, he might be thinking its less likely I'm bluffing, and maybe folding some combos of 99,TT that I'm targeting. What do u think?

[StnBuddha]

Hard to say if he calls a jam with hands you beat enough of the time to make that the most +EV play. I'm kinda leaning toward a smal bet (around 1/4 - 1/3 pot) to get a reluctant call from showdown value hands we beat. It suck if we get shoved on , but I think a smaller bet is > than checking back.

[shameless]

I guess this really depends on your read of the player in that given moment.

Has your hand turned more to showdown value now i dont know for you but for me it has and its an easy check behind with 77bbs worth of possible value!!

That turn chk call doesnt look nice to me tho!!

If anyone disagrees or thinks im being too weak here i would like to know because i want to improve my game!!

You also mention the combos your targeting of 99,TT... doesnt that answer it as well??? like if he isnt calling with worse your only going to be called by better??
An 8 is hugely unlikely in his range here, as there is only 1 combo of 88 and cant see this type of villain calling with hands like 89s!!

[guitarizt]

I'd check river I think only 99-TT can call. Maybe lower pp's or lower pairs with Ax or something but I think he folds those so often that it's a check back. I'm always firing river as a bluff so I might just jam it anyways for value if I was really leaning on him. I'm going by the reads and notes you have on him but I rarely check back JJ here I think.

[grogheadflow]

Meh, probably check. Value too thin from too few combos of worse hands that can call us.

[TheStudent]

River 7, what are we doing?

River 9, what are we doing?

River A, what are we doing? Spewy to turn made hand into bluff?

[guitarizt]

7 jam / 9 jam / A check for same reasons as Q on turn and he has more Ax in his range

[Eu.Era]

His range here is 88 99 TT KQs AQ possibly A8s , meh i dont see what we can get value from really, betting the river is a bit thin. I would hate to get check raised also.

[Rolling chances]

check the river that is your best bet here (if you'll pardon the pun). Some players will double float on low boards thinking they have 6 clean outs with the A10 they hold, you certainly wouldn't want a to be faced with a checkraise here and its hard to get value from almost anything worse than what your holding.

[JohnniePunani]

Fear of getting check raised is no reason not to value bet. This is flawed logic imo.

I think given deeper stacks this is a value bet and it's not even close, really. He has worse pocket pairs a TON of the time.

I think the real reason why betting is so sketchy is because bet folding 15 when it's only a minraise is pretty terrible and he might not call a shove with worse.

If he's stationy and passive I don't see anything wrong at all with betting like 1/4 pot. That's a tasty tasty bet for a station that's being knocked around.

I'd make it 9.99 just to be CHEEKY.