50NL vs. mega-nit

[ascension1223]

MP in this hand is a super super nit, playing 8/6 and only two tables. I'm nine tabling, see him open and figure against his range J9 had a lot of potential to make hands that will stack him. SB is a touristy type with 38/14 type stats (Im guessing I don't really care about him). When I get action on this flop I am correct in discounting jacks from his range right? I mean besides AJs, I put him on AK/AQ fd type hands, 77+. Are we sticking it in here all day? I felt a little weird about it against someone who is SOOOO tight, but we're talking about such rare times he has a jack here I think I have to just put it in happy imo. Thoughts?


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $50.25
UTG: $61.55
MP: $48.60
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $67.65
SB: $78.10

Pre-Flop: J 9 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($5.75) J J 2 (3 Players)
SB checks, MP bets $5.75, Hero raises to $13, SB folds, MP raises to $44.75, Hero raises to $65.90 and is All-In, MP calls $2.10 and is All-In

Turn: ($99.45) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($99.45) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

[effceeyoo]

I wouldn't discount jacks from his range but he probably plays QQ-AA the same way, and there are only 4 combos of AJ available vs 12 combos of QQ-AA. Are you sure your stats are accurate though? How big a hand sample do you have on him? If he plays KJ (4 combos) and QJs (one combo, 3 suits are out) and doesn't *always* overplay QQ-AA on this board, then your play becomes much less profitable.

I'd play the hand in the same way but more often than not I think I get shown AJ in these spots. (Actually I don't ever remember winning one of these types of hands... I get shown either Ax or when I have the Ace, a boat )

[effceeyoo]

Also, I'm not sure about the profitability of J9o in these spots.

What is your plan if you flop top pair and he two barrels?

And how will you play straight draws? If you raise on the flop with an open ender and get action, it will usually be against an overpair or TPTK and you won't be doing well. I guess you can play the draw more passively and bloat the pot when you hit...

Obviously hitting two pair will be really profitable against his range but you can hit two pair with ATC...

*edit* Err I'm not trying to deride your play but just wondering if I should be calling in these spots with these marginal hands too. Obviously vs his tight range the implied odds are tremendous, especially against the nits who overplay their big holecards.

[ascension1223]

Sample size was over 800 hands. You're right to ask about the marginal hands, for me this one is really close. If it was suited I'd like it a lot better, honestly I think you have to be comfortable playing your hand post-flop with this type of a situation, but against someone this tight, and with an idiot behind who will likely overcall with ATC, this play shows immediate profit. I think you also have to realize he can have NFD's in his range on this flop, or be including it in ours and overplay PP's like TT/99.

[Ikaika]

I don't think we're going to flop something we can go with frequently enough to play J9o profitably against such a tight range.

This is like the best flop you could possibly hope for when you call pre, I don't see how folding is even an option.

[Robin_Ripper]

Fold preflop, Suited I probably call also IP.
Never ever folding postflop after that flop.

(in case you were behind you'll just suckout on the turn anyway )

[Fuzzy Logic]

Originally Posted by Robin_Ripper

Fold preflop, Suited I probably call also IP.
Never ever folding postflop after that flop.

(in case you were behind you'll just suckout on the turn anyway )

+1.

[Cristina_M]

Originally Posted by Robin_Ripper

Fold preflop, Suited I probably call also IP.
Never ever folding postflop after that flop.

(in case you were behind you'll just suckout on the turn anyway )

I'll bet a chip on this statement too