AKs NL10 x and 2x bluff catch

[XM177E2]

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.60)
BB ($13.92)
UTG ($4.09)
Hero ($10)
CO ($5)
BTN ($14.97)

CO posts $0.10
CO posts $0.05

Dealt to Hero K A

fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

FLOP ($1.40) 2 4 3

BB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($1.40) 2 4 3 J

BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

RIVER ($3.40) 2 4 3 J 9

BB bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20



I have SB+BB poster and 2 fishes in pot, so I open big.
On flop I'm not sure about cBeting. Now when I'm review this hand I think i should cBet here, i have 8 good outs. On such Turn card i think i should bet again and give up R.

[mythrilfox]

I don't see the need to be raising to more than pot here. I would just make it .45 or so since that gives you a better price when stealing and you'll have more room to play postflop if the poster decides to call.

since you made it so large, I expect BB's range to be pretty tight here, especially since his coldcall% is so low. flop is close for me, but I lean a little towards betting because I don't think AQ or AJ fold to a 60%psb or so. as played, it's pretty tight but I would just fold the turn. his range is already tight after preflop, I'm not sure he bluffs something with 0 equity like QTs on the turn, and he may check down a hand like AQ. so bluffs need to be discounted; however he probably plays his pairs or Jx like this a huge % of the time, plus I have no clue what to do on most rivers. some ppl fire one and give up while some fire two.

[mythrilfox]

I've been thinking about this a bit more, and I think you have to call turn/fold river. we do have some implied odds on some rivers (might dominate his KQ/AJ/AQ/AT type hands if a K or A comes - obviously we are only calling a bet or betting when checked to in those cases, but it is something. the corollary to that is we have reverse implied odds against AJ/KJ, but those are fewer combinations of hands), plus our equity is pretty good on the turn vs. his range. it's just so exploitable to be folding this on the turn, especially when he appears to be the type of player to bet when you give him rope to (I don't put that much stock into his PF stats or into his other stats over this few of hands, but he does have a 100% cbet so far, which is not insignificant). we only need to realize about 30% of the pot to be calling turn, and I think the combination of our outs + the chances we're ahead will allow us to do that.