Block betting vs donk NL50sh

[markday]

No noteworthy history.

I think a block bet is by far the best play imo, the question is, how much otr?


By fishdonk at 2012-02-10

No noteworthy history

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($21.40)
Hero ($62.10)
UTG+1 ($72.89)
CO ($94.57)
BTN ($54.77)

Dealt to Hero Q Q

Hero raises to $1.50, fold, CO calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($3.75) 2 7 8

Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

TURN ($9.75) 2 7 8 J

Hero bets $7, CO calls $7

RIVER ($23.75) 2 7 8 J 9

Hero bets $9

[TheStudent]

Edit: didn't see he was 63/18. I like ur sizing. Would c/f vs reg though.

[JohnniePunani]

I think this is way too thin. What is gonna call this river bet? A8/K8? I mean those might even fold the turn. We're also not really worried about him bluffing to blocker this are we? Is he gonna turn his A8/K8 into a bluff on the river? Doubtful imo.

[markday]

The guy was playing 63/13 with a low fold to cb so i can definitely see him peeling with the aforementioned hands, perhaps an even smaller bet would be even better to expand his calling range. If we check we have to c/f imo when he could be value betting with a hand such as AJ (unlikely though) so I like the vb against this particular opponent. Vs most I def like a c/f.

[mythrilfox]

here is a pretty generous stove for him:

Board: 2s 7h 8c Js 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.783% 61.78% 00.00% 97 0.00 { TT-99, AJs, A8s, KJs, K8s, J9s+, J7s, T8s-T7s, 96s+, 65s, AJo, A8o, KJo, K8o, J9o+, J7o, T8o-T7o, 96o+, 65o }
Hand 1: 38.217% 38.22% 00.00% 60 0.00 { QdQs }

assumed he would raise all sets + 9T earlier in the hand, as well as (somewhat arbitrarily) that 2/3 of his 78/J7/J8 raise earlier in the hand. also assumed he calls riv with all combos of 96, A8, K8, AJ, KJ.

that seems pretty generous to me and still only gives us 38% equity when called. in reality, i think it'll be lower than that. i understand that, when value betting OOP, we don't necessarily need to be good >50% vs. his calling range, particularly if our opponent's river bet puts us into a difficult situation. in this spot we'd need to be good just over 21% to make your bet "+EV" (i.e. better than open folding), and i'm sure that's the case, but i think he'll play straightforward enough that checking here will show a bigger profit than betting. i mean, he just has 0 air in his range aside from a handful of 4s6s/4s5s/KsQs combos and fish don't really turn pairs into bluffs all that often, plus you run that risk (and perhaps even a greater risk of that) by block betting anyway.

[JohnniePunani]

Pretty much exactly what MTF said also let's accentuate the point that a smaller bet may serve to shoot us in the foot because it may induce bluffs more often than expanding his calling range.