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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2009, 03:22 PM
ultrasPNT's Avatar
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Default nines and only nines?

Villain is nitty but decent he also plays up, nl100 and sometimes nl200 he is 18/14/5.5 aggression factor, 73% flop cbet 39% turn cbet 50% river cbet, river aggression factor 6; he opens 13% utg and 11% mp on a 2k hand sample; also saw him playing big hands fast a couple of times.
Preflop:
Why calling ATs? More for the flush than for the ace, and on the turn I'll know exactly where I stand most of the times.Also I have position.
Flop:
Why float him? Because I can. Because I'm better than him post flop.Because this flop doesn't help his early position range.
Why float him with ATs on the flop? Because I have overcards, BDFD GS and he is most likely going to give up on later streets on lots of cards.
Why betting on the turn when he checks? To flop his better air: AJ,AK,AQ,A6s,A7s. To make the pot bigger in case I hit and get more value from his marginal hands: A8s,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA.
On the river I'm confused, pretty sure he is not taking this line with close to nuts on the flop or turn because he is missing value and he knows I'm pot controlling a lot. So I don't get it did this guy rivered me? It's going to cost me another bi to find out.
Arguments for calling:
his line is weird he doesn't really represents that many full houses.
this spot is bluffable and he knows that.
I beat KQh and flushes that put me on a straight.
Arguments for folding:
He has a full house here all the time if he is decent. He just trapped me because we're deep and he is greedy.

Party Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 165356
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $106.63
BTN: $46.45
SB: $45.68
BB: $50.50
UTG: $85.14

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A T
UTG raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 6 7 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.75) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.00, UTG calls $7

River: ($23.75) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $21.00, UTG raises to $73.64, Hero( God damn &#^# hippie!!! ) ?
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2009, 03:49 PM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

I'm probably calling but that's b/c I am a call station. I would think he would lead 99's here but not positive. He figures u have a good hand b/c you called flop and bet turn when the board paired which is usually a sign of strength(at least I think it is, correct me if i'm wrong). So 9 on rvr looks like a scare card and may think you wouldn't bet if you had an 8, so I think he leads out a lot more w/ a full house more than he checks. That's if he thought all that through which he may not have.
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Old 06-28-2009, 12:13 PM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

I dont mind a call, but I dont mind a fold so i guess I will have to think about this hand a bit more.
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Old 06-29-2009, 05:46 PM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

I'm afraid this is a hurt fold, i. e. a fold that really fucking hurts.

His line on the turn really edges it towards 99. By that I mean that he has a hand that he's willing to continue with, but would absolutely hate to get reraised.

Check/shoving a straight would be absolutely retarded.
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Old 07-08-2009, 12:10 AM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

is villain aggressive / spewy enough to do this with trips? (not the boat) if yes, call, if not, muck it.
you are either splitting or wb
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Old 07-08-2009, 01:02 AM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

instacall....then yell FUCKING GAME!!! get up walk it off, get some water, sit down and go back to work.
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Old 07-08-2009, 03:46 PM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

I think I'm calling here. His flop cbet can put him on numerous over combos - hopefully KQhh. I really don't think he's checking 9s on the turn with his turn aggression.

His river check is weird if he has 9s. To me this screams "you've got trips or a straight and I know you're going to bet a river check, and I'm going to represent AK/AQ/KQ hearts"
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Old 07-09-2009, 04:29 PM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

Wow, does he ever expect you to fold here after your near full pot river bet and your range has more flopped sets than his. This is a really weird spot as I cant see many villains checking FH's in this spot as you are likely to check behind a huge amount of the time.

Gay spot. I call cos its 50NL and ppl do stupid shit but i'm not happy about it at all.
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Old 07-10-2009, 08:24 AM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

Bet/fold is such a gay line on the river that you have to call!

He has 6h5h right?
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Old 07-10-2009, 08:30 AM
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Default Re: nines and only nines?

I have no idea I went for the gay line.
But I've made 4 stacks after this hand so I suppose this hand was a big setup.
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