NL 50sh Royal flush draw 136 bbs deep

[markday]

Villain is playing 35/ 33 with a 3b of 22% over 35 ish hands

Not sure why I didn't raise the flop, we have plenty of equity vs his getting it in range which looks something like this

[
Board: KJ9
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****44.10%**43.90%***0.20%*{ AdQd }
MP3****55.90%**55.70%***0.20%*{ KK+, JJ, 99, AKs, KJs, QTs, J9s, Qd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AKo, KJo, QTo }



Plus we can obv get value from spewy calls such as weak fds, AJ, Kxs etc, so its clearly a raise for me on the flop. After we call the flop and the turn bricks I think flatting is best here as our equity is now significant less, i can see merit for jamming turn if we think villain is 2 barreling with a decent frequency but readless flatting i think is the best play.

otr villain snap checks! we do have some sd value vs a decent amount of bluffs so should we check back here?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($50)
BB ($68.41)
UTG ($13.50)
CO ($37.19)
Hero ($98.04)

Dealt to Hero A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3.50

FLOP ($10.25) J 9 K

BB bets $5.87, Hero calls $5.87

TURN ($21.99) J 9 K 6

BB bets $12.75, Hero calls $12.75

RIVER ($47.49) J 9 K 6 7

BB checks, Hero ?????

[Probability]

There is a certain time when people assume someone is going to 4 bet them light. With the amount of hands he's played and his stats over that sample, this might have been on of those times. While flatting AQs is always fine and +EV, if he shoves light here with AXs or some random hand AQs would be a nice hand to 4 bet.

I'd raise the flop and shove the turn. He's super wide so we have some fold equity. He could also call flop and fold turn when we shove blanks. If we get it in on the flop it's not the end of the world either.

[markday]

thx for the feedback probability, as played do you check the river?

[Probability]

It seems unlikely we would flat a strong hand on the flop and turn so we don't really rep much. However, we don't really have any complete air in our range either. I think its pretty player and image dependent. Shoving seems kinda cool though.

[mythrilfox]

matt nails it