NL50 turn decision with overpair

[whorunthis]

Guy just sat down and I dont have any reads, I just know that hes a regular. BTN is a reg too.
Considered getting it in on the flop, but I guess flatting is clearly better here readless on this type of board.
Are u guys getting this in on the turn? I thought I shouldnt as he can have all the sets very likely, except QQ and KJ is not impossible and I'm not sure a random NL50 reg is playing his QJ this way even 50% of the time (I mean actually betting the turn, expect c-c more). AQ (KQ) could make sense, so there are hands that we still beat and some bluffs like AJ and maybe hands that picked up a backdoor flush draw, but discounting bluffs a bit because of his betsizing (would expect a shove) and the fact that people just dont pull big bluffs like this that often on this lvl.
I mean does it basically boil down to how often hes likely to bluffraise the flop with his overs and stuff like backdoor fd's?

Ongame Network $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

BTN: $49.25
SB: $103.35
BB: $50.00
UTG: $31.83
Hero (MP): $50.75
CO: $18.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with K K
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 9 T 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BTN folds, BB raises to $13, Hero calls $9.50

Turn: ($30.75) Q (2 players)
BB bets $21.00, Hero ???

[btimm]

I don't think too many people are playing QJ this way and I don't even think he has that many combos in his range. I think this is T9, TT, 99, or 44 most of the time, with a few sparing bluffs. I am not calling the turn.

[Anthony18]

Yeah, he can't really have too many bluffs in this spot since it's multiway, KJ got there - I would fold semi-quickly on the T.

I don't see people bluffing in spots like these and fwiw if he c/r a hand like QJ on the flop he's prob not betting turn imo.

[StnBuddha]

I think it's an easy fold on the turn and, given the population read, possibly on the flop. Anyway, asking how likely he has a value hand is a very different question than "how likely is he to have a value hand that crushes me given that he x/raised flop and donked turn." Easy fold.

[whorunthis]

I dont see how flop can be a fold here.
Although I now think getting it in on the flop is overplaying our hand and by calling its not THAT tricky to play on future streets. If there was a flushdraw present on the flop then maybe its more dabatable.
Anyway the turn is like the nut bluffcard if hes capable and agro opponent? (and even without pokerstoving etc I expect it has to be a go broke situation with KK in that case[to a shove?]), but yeah I think its still a clear fold vs. majority like u guys say.
I'm horrible at folding, but I'm happy I managed to lay it down, atleast in this clear spot.

Cheers!

[guitarizt]

Originally Posted by StnBuddha

I think it's an easy fold on the turn and, given the population read, possibly on the flop. Anyway, asking how likely he has a value hand is a very different question than "how likely is he to have a value hand that crushes me given that he x/raised flop and donked turn." Easy fold.

I never fold flop but I think it's much closer than I used to give it credit for and it might actually be a fold if I filter for it in HM. This is a flop that's going to get check raised light a lot though and people don't follow through with a river bluff so it's usually pretty easy to go call call fold. As played I'd fold the turn. The Q is a horrible card and pretty much hits a lot of the range that I perceive him as having.