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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 05-14-2009, 07:45 PM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

Overall, for CC% I'd say anything under 10% would be tight, above 13 - 14% would be loose.

For 3betting, anything under 6% would be tight and anything over 9 - 10% would be loose.

Specifically 3betting otb, I'd say anything under 9 - 10% would be tight.

Those are just rough estimates though.


I wouldn't worry too much about trying to get a positive red line, aejones has a negative red line and he's aejones. If you start changing your game just to make a particular stat look better then your game is going to suffer. If you're changing it for the right reasons and it happens to make your red line go up then great. I used to worry about having a negative red line as well, when I didn't care anymore it started going up.

I think part of the reason mine goes up is that I defend my blinds very light, so I'm making back a lot of the blinds where most people fold preflop and lose them without showdown. Obviously, defending the blinds light is not something I'd advise anybody to do until they have a very solid postflop game.


I'm not sure what to say about playing postflop in 3bet pots, it's an extremely broad question. Try to pick out some hands where you're unsure what to do in a 3bet pot and post them on the forum. In general, a lot of the things you should do in single raised pots you should also be doing in 3bet pots, it's the same game; board textures don't change and opponent tendencies don't change that much. Make sure you're hand reading well, ranges are frequently going to be tighter so you should be able to narrow it down faster.

It doesn't look like you call down too much or bluff off your stack in single raised pots, why are you doing it in 3bet pots? Yes, there's more in the pot to win but you shouldn't be spazzing out because of it.

One easy thing you can do to improve W$WSF is make sure you're picking up limped pots whenever you can.
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 05-14-2009, 10:54 PM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

Thanks again for another great response. Sorry I was somewhat vague when talking about 3bet pots. I particularly struggle when I call 3bets. I filtered for when I called 3 bets, and when I did 3 bet, both of which are shown below. I knew I was doing poorly when I called a 3bet, but I didn't know it was this bad. It looks like I am playing extremely weak and passively based on the low AF and WWSF. This doesn't seem good at all because based on my fold to 3bet stat, I think I am calling 3 bets with a relatively tight range which in turn should mean I am showing up with a stronger range in general and end up winning a higher percentage of the time compared to someone who is calling 3bets a lot wider. I guess this just shows the same trend as in single raised pots, and that is that I suck when I do not have the initiative. Is my best bet to get better at this to simply work on bluff raising, floating, etc. and try to read hands better in general? I know this is pretty vague, and I will try to post some hands in the forum.

Called 3bet:


From the stats when I did 3 bet, I can see why you might have suggested I do it with a higher frequency.
Did 3bet:
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 05:57 AM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

No, those call 3bet stats look fine. What you're forgetting is that, if you had folded, you would have lost your open. So, even though you lost 150BB/100 over the sample, if you opened to 4xbb you would have lost 200BB/100 by just folding every time.

It's also pretty natural to have a lower W$WSF and AFs when you're the one calling (whether that's calling a 3bet or just an open), since you don't have initiative. Sometimes a fish has min 3bet you and you're calling purely to hit since his range is so powerful.

Particularly at low stakes a 3bet usually signals a strong range from regs as well, so a lot of the time it's going to be harder to play back when you know their range is so strong.

But getting better at bluff raising, floating, and reading hands is still extremely important.

Your stats when you did 3bet look solid as well.
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 07:18 AM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

Hey Red, its not quite ten thousand, but around eight let me know what you think.


Last edited by RedJoker : 05-15-2009 at 07:33 AM. Reason: resized image
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 08:13 AM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

You've cut out the open limping which is great.

You're now changing your opening range based on position which is also good.

However, you're also playing a much tighter style now and you're stealing a lot less which isn't a good sign. I can't see the old images any more for some reason but based on my comments it looks like you're 3betting less and c/ring less as well which are also bad trends. Although, at low stakes that's not really a huge issue right now.

Your flop cbet% is still low and, now that you're playing even tighter, that likely means you're cbetting as a bluff even less. So you really need to work on getting that up.

Your Agg%s are still low from the blinds which means you need to look at picking up limped pots more.

It looks like you're calling 3bets less which is good.

So there's some good progress in some areas, you're more positionally aware and not open limping. The next areas you should look at are opening up more from late position and cbetting as a bluff more often.
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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 11:16 AM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

not to bust any of your bubbles, but i don't think stats other than vpip/pfr converge until you get like 40-50k hand samples
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 11:42 AM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

Quote:
Originally Posted by klink- View Post
not to bust any of your bubbles, but i don't think stats other than vpip/pfr converge until you get like 40-50k hand samples
Some of them won't; winrate, W$SD, W$WSF, river cbet% and AF (turn cbet% and AF maybe) for example.

Most others will converge relatively quickly, and they'll certainly be within a reasonable range of the true percentage after about 10 - 20k hands. When you get up to 50k hand samples a lot of players may have changed their game within that time, especially recreational microstakes players who don't get a lot of hands in but are continually learning new things and changing their games.

If you looked at an 8-tabling midstakes pro then they're likely getting that many hands in during a month and frequently won't have learned anything significantly new or changed their game at all during that time.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:15 PM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

All right Red sounds good, One of the problems of have been facing of late, is the large numbers of unkown players, once I get a hundered hands on somebody at this level I really seem to be able to run all over them the problem is finding tables with regs at this level. It has reallly been frustrating playing at this level, your constantly running into very wierd styles, for example I had someone c/c a set three streets, with out ever a reraise which is great but i was playing a draw fast after he c/c the turn and checked it to me on the river I figured he can't have much of anything and i had good barrel cards so I barrelled again. The other day I had a multiway pot for eight dollars and every body checked all three streets, thats over three qaurters of my stacked, and a won with a pair of sevens. Its driving me crazy I get my rake back soon and I think I'm going to jump back up to twenty five nl where there play actually makes sense! Thanks for all the tips I will try to step up the aggression. People just play so loose I have been trying to tighting up, maybe that has carried over to my post flop play. I will say though my win rate is terriable so maybe this is why I will pay special attention to these areas of my game and let you know how it went. Thanks man.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:16 PM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

OH, one more thing do you recommend cbetting oop what percantage of the time.
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2009, 07:30 PM
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Default Re: **Official μNL stats thread**

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus13 View Post
All right Red sounds good, One of the problems of have been facing of late, is the large numbers of unkown players, once I get a hundered hands on somebody at this level I really seem to be able to run all over them the problem is finding tables with regs at this level. It has reallly been frustrating playing at this level, your constantly running into very wierd styles, for example I had someone c/c a set three streets, with out ever a reraise which is great but i was playing a draw fast after he c/c the turn and checked it to me on the river I figured he can't have much of anything and i had good barrel cards so I barrelled again. The other day I had a multiway pot for eight dollars and every body checked all three streets, thats over three qaurters of my stacked, and a won with a pair of sevens. Its driving me crazy I get my rake back soon and I think I'm going to jump back up to twenty five nl where there play actually makes sense! Thanks for all the tips I will try to step up the aggression. People just play so loose I have been trying to tighting up, maybe that has carried over to my post flop play. I will say though my win rate is terriable so maybe this is why I will pay special attention to these areas of my game and let you know how it went. Thanks man.
You definitely don't want to be looking for regs at microstakes, your money is going to come from the fish. Make sure you're taking a lot of notes on the weird lines they're taking.

It's good to take shots at higher levels when you're rolled for it but make sure you move back down if you lose a couple of buy-ins, no point in busting your roll.

Yeah, a lot of people tighten up against loose players, sort of the old recommendation to play tight in loose games and loose in tight games. That's actually wrong, the correct adjustment is to play even looser in loose games because you're playing against weaker opponents who have weak hand ranges so more of your own range will be profitable to play. However, if you're not comfortable isolating and 3bet isolating wide then there's no problem taking the less high variance approach to the game.

It's only 8k hands so it's not really a good reflection of what your true winrate is. As well as that, you should be happy as long as you're winning, a huge amount of players, even regs, lose money. Just concentrate on getting better and try not to get too worried about your results.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximus13 View Post
OH, one more thing do you recommend cbetting oop what percantage of the time.
I tend to cbet more OOP for a couple of reasons. The first is that I've usually opened from early position so my perceived range is stronger. The second reason is that, because I'm OOP, I'm forced to bet a lot of my middling type hands, like TT on K96 for example, that I'd usually check back if I was IP.

I'm checking back IP because I assume that I can't cbet 100% of my range so I polarize to hands which are clearly for value, and I'm happy continuing with, and hands which have no showdown value and are clearly bluffs. So the range that I check back with are the middle of my range; weak top pairs, middle and bottom pairs, ace highs and weak draws like gutshots.

The reason I don't do this OOP is that when I'm IP I can shorten the hand and get closer to showdown, I feel happy calling a turn bet and making a decision on the river. When I'm OOP however, I could end up facing 3 barrels which makes calling down a far more marginal proposition.


Of course, like I mentioned a couple of times in this thread, micro stakes players play very fit or fold and aren't c/r bluffing very frequently at all. So, against them, we can just make the most +EV play in a vacuum, and not worry about having an exploitably high cbetting frequency, which will frequently be to bet a lot of those middling hands, particularly the weaker ones, even when IP. We can feel happy folding to a c/r because we're so frequently behind whereas, against a tough opponent, we wouldn't feel happy folding because we'd be folding the best hand so frequently.

Last edited by RedJoker : 05-15-2009 at 10:14 PM.
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