Trouble with SD value AK with position in 3B pots

[koboosh]

Good example to show you what I mean...
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $173.02
BB: $104.38
UTG: $78.42
MP: $50.30
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $62.50

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.15) 5 4 T (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9.15) 4 (2 Players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($18.15) 6 (2 Players)
UTG bets $8.66, Hero folds

In this specific example this guy has 0% fold to 3B over 11 hands. He's the type who wants to run you over and then run you over some more right after it (e.g. he catches you ch/r bluff and wins a big pot so he'll flat A5o to your open and make moves)... He has 80% bet turn vs missed cbet also. 600 hands. I 3B him not long ago..

I have SD value and nothing better ever folds. I can't really see myself 3 barreling here (2 barrel won't be effective for sure) either unless it's for my whole stack and even then I'm not to happy trying and finding I get called down by some 99,JJ.



I guess my trouble here is vs the lead. Is the guy thinking he's going to get me off AK or not? It's really difficult to know at this stake because people just do all kinds of random crap. I call/ call and see pocket pairs alot. I also call/call and see total garbage alot. How can I make this easier for myself?

[mythrilfox]

are you asking just in general? because this spot is reasonably nonstandard as far as "showing down AK" hands go - you're against a uniquely aggressive opponent and are super deep.

in general, i'd say the best way around this is to either collect reads against opponents or just bet it more often than not vs. unknowns since it makes the hand so much easier to play. (by reads, think a lot about their PF range and how it connects with boards and what they're likely to do with that range)

in this spot i like betting around 6-6.50 on the flop because you can put a tonnnnnnn of pressure on him this deep, especially since he calls such a weak range oop. you also don't turn your hand face-up. and yes it's two buyins but you can't be afraid to barrel off on good runouts (queen or jack turn i'm prolly barreling off vs. this guy). however, if you check, i think you just need to close your eyes and call twice, especially on this runout. yeah his sizing looks value-y but this guy is just insanely aggressive so you have to close your eyes and call down til he adjusts.

edit: you definitely need a bluffcatching range vs. this guy. because he's so aggressive, that means you should be more likely to bluffcatch hands that you might value bet against other opponents, since he's going to make most of his mistakes in betting too much. a lot of times he will just bet the hands he was going to ck call on the flop anyway. so i would check back a good bit of Tx hands here (basically always betting AT/KT fwiw) and look to bluffcatch, esp since you are basically never gonna get 3 streets of value this deep w/ those hands. obviously if he is calling down with 56 and 88 stuff here then you should just be betting and just bluffcatch a slightly weaker range.

[Probability]

I'd bet the flop with the intention of barreling off on a lot of run outs. Any board pairing cards and any cards ten or higher and maybe 2-3 too.

[koboosh]

Yeah in general it's anytime I have some SD hand in a 3B pot. Could also be KQ on Txx when I know the guy isn't likely to fold Ax.

Our standard should always be to bet flop big enough to threaten stacks by river right?

Probability:
Why board pairing cards?

Also in regards to pre-flop sizing since my c-bet will be unsuccessful more often should I size my 3bets much smaller? e.g. to 8-9 BB. My thinking is I'm giving up on more pots post so it would be better for me to lose these smaller pots more frequently rather than bigger ones.
The downside is that I can't get stacks in.