Can I squeeze jam, pleeeeeease?

[grogheadflow]

This is the 13:00 $69 6max on FTP, utg is playing 50/35 up to now and I've caught him opening j7s etc utg. Blinds 80/160, instinct devil sat on my left shouder is saying jam.... should I listen instead to tourny life angel living on my other shoulder?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $160(BB) Full Tilt
SB ($6,170)
Hero ($8,673)
UTG ($8,325)
UTG+1 ($6,914)
CO ($10,551)
BTN ($7,775)

Dealt to Hero K T

UTG raises to $480, fold, CO calls $480, BTN calls $480, fold, Hero raises to $8,673 (AI),

[tedjam]

Marginal but I think its prob +ev. If utg is opening wide then the only callers might be the CO and button with 77 88 type hands(at best (they might see what ur up too and figure to be ahead) and with whats in the pot its an ok spot for your to Flip. I dont think they call with KQ etc. Also u need a read on UTG that he ll fold enuff better hands to make it profitable. Unfortunatly he had a decent hand and called this time? lol

[klink-]

seems pretty spewy at first glance

[clayton]

Clayton: hmmmm
grogheadflow: if there is room for any creativity. at all. in MTTs, tell me I can jam
Clayton: i think you can get away with it
Clayton: i certainly hate overcalling
Clayton: so the question is
Clayton: is raisecalling or jamming a higher ev than folding
Clayton: and i think the answer will be yes
Clayton: if u have a hud
Clayton: i would have clicked on the pfr stat
Clayton: and see what his sample was raising up front
Clayton: even if u saw him open J7s
grogheadflow: ya was fairly small.... but he'd raised j7s from there
Clayton: it has to be a certain number
grogheadflow: ok then
grogheadflow: ty
Clayton: truth be told
Clayton: if u really wanted to know the right answer
Clayton: u could crank it out in pokerstove
Clayton: just assign a % for his opening range
Clayton: and a % for his calling range
Clayton: add in the dead money
Clayton: then do an ev calc
Clayton: in real time
Clayton: if i thought he was opening like
Clayton: 40%
Clayton: id prob shove
Clayton: and be like
Clayton: eh this could be bad
Clayton: but w/e

[BigCheesy]

You are a bit too deep to shove profitably imho, I'd be glad to shove there at 25-40bb tho.
Answer obviously depends mainly on his calling range, if he's calling with stuff like A7s and 33 there it may be too spewy, but with a wide gap between raising range (which is already huge) and calling-shoves range it's certainly pretty good.

[siac0]

I think if you can shove here is very image dependent. If UTG knows he has been opening very light and he thinks you are the sort of player who would notice this, shoving gets worse. If you have shown down any moves (e.g 3 betting light) then shoving also gets spewy. I'm only shoving if I have a very tight image, otherwise I just fold.

[TrevRob]

I think it's player dependent but seems spewy at best. You still have plenty of chips and will likely find a way more +EV spot vs this player before you run out of wiggle room.

[Dbiza]

Against the UTG raiser this play might net breakeven ev. But the focus should adjust to the CO & BTN flat call and his range of hands. K10 is not a good hand for showdown, so the flat call by the CO & BTN off when signal fold. 3-bet pre is negative ev because your out of position with a bad showdown hand.

[drybesiscool]

i actually think its a pretty easy fold being this deep.
i shove when below 30bb