River shove

[natarish]

i was recently playing $1k buyin MTT in reno, nv when this hand came up against my tight nittish russian friend.

Blinds: 150-300 antes 50
10 handed

Hero (MP) Stack: 22K
Villians (BB) Stack: 13K

MP: Hero raises to 800 with AK
everyone folds and villians calls in BB.

Flop: Tc 3h 2d

Villians chks, Hero C-bets 1250 into 2250 and villian instant calls.

Turn: 8h

Villians chks, and Hero chks behind.

River: Ts

Villians bets 2350 into 4750 and leaves 8.5k behind. Hero thinks for a moment and looks at Villians stack and Shoves all-in.
What percentage of the time do i get a fold here after villians chks flop, turn and makes small bet on river.

[bigdog6391]

doing some range based analysis, based on board texture and opponent, is a good place to start. he defended bb and then x/c on the 10 3 2r. At this point he's got 10x alot, as well as pocket pairs 44-99, maybe some 3x or 2x type hands, he'll also have a5, a4. I won't give him almost any 2p hands on this board, and discount his sets since he might fastplay sometimes.

turn goes c/c and he leads out on the 10river. he's gonna still have 10x, maybe be making a thin value bet with 77 or 66, and be bluffind with his a4,a5 sometimes. He'll probably just look to showdown 2x and 3x and mid pocket pairs tho, so his river betting range is weighted towards 10x hands and a5,a4. Againt this range calling river is gonna be better than shoving as a bluff, and folding is probably better than calling and shoving.

[natarish]

range with whom he calls my shove is super narrow: 10x, boats.
Note: 23 is counterfeited.
Majority of his range is weak.
if he calls my shove with any one pair type hands, he is making a soul read and hero call.

Im not gonna do the hand combinations, but seems like majority of the time he folds, because he is tight player who plays conservative.

[natarish]

the only problem is my shove looks very weak. the way the hand played out, most of the time i dont have a pair; therefore, villian can make hero call. However, if i call then i could lose to 99 type hands or even 44 thru 77. so how do i know if i should call, shove, or fold.