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Old 11-30-2011, 07:39 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2011
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Default 5bet bluffing

simple preflop question, which i have answered already, but want people to go over it and see if i made a mistake. I havn't explained my thought process, but i copied my method of calculation from foxwoodsfiend, in one of his old coaching videos.

is 5betting 55 profitable vs a button 4bet range from a reg, if so how profitable is it? How often do they need to fold?. I have given the reg a 4bet-call range of AQo+ and 66+. which is 6.5% of hands.

when we jam vs light 4bet call range from nl200 reg, our ev is 32%. and they are 4betting 6.5% of the time for value with a range of AQo+ and 66+. This is a range i made up but is somewhat accurate i think.

we are going to try find out how often they need to 4bet fold for it to work.
x=how often they need to 4bet fold for us to be breakeven.

32% ($200+44+1=245) + 65.8% (-180)
78.4-114.2 = -35
risking 35$ to win $67. How often does this need to work?
X*(67)*(1-x)(-35) =0
67x+35x-35=0
102x=35
x=.34

6.5% x.34= 2.21.

So if reg is 4bet folding more than 2.21% of the times they get 3bet, assuming they are 4bet calling 6.5% of the times they get 3bet. Then it is profitable to 5bet jam 55.
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