Fold equity...

[ninjapoker]

I'm a little confused regarding this concept. Sometimes I think people confuses Fold % with Fold equity.

Please help me here.

Lets assume that there is a Initial Pot of $10. Now lets assume that we have 25% equity on our hand . Now lets assume that we bet all in $5.

If villian always calls

EV = 0.25 * 20 - 5
EV = 0

So this is a breakeven move, without fold equity, since villians never folds.


Now lets assume that villian folds 10% of time.

EV = 0.9 (0) + 0.1 (10)
EV = +1

Now this is a +EV move, since villian will fold 10% of time. The +1 is equal to 30% equity overral to the pot.

My questions is: what is the value of fold equity?

Is it correct to say that my fold equity is 5%? (30% - 25%)
Is it correct to say that my fold equity is $1? (1-0)
Is it correct to say that my fold equity is 10%? (Fold %)

If all theese are false, please show me how to calc fold equity.

[Fuzzy Logic]

Fold equity is the (% likelihood your opponent folds) X (your gain in equity if the opponent folds). So for your example:
(0.1)*(1-0.75)=2.5%. So your *new* hand equity is 27.5%.

Your calcs are incorrect also. With 10% FE your EV is now:

[(0.1)(10)]+[(0.25)(20)-(0.75)(20)]=-9 which is the same as

(0.275)(20)-(0.725)(20).

Also, FE is not just when you have the worst hand, it is also for stopping your opponent claiming their equity % of the pot, e.g. we hold 22 on a K73r board. Our opponent has Q6o so they have ~25% equity, even though we have the best hand, a bet can get them to fold thereby not allowing them to "claim" their % of the pot.

Meh post is a bit disjointed but hopefully you get the point.

Calculating Fold equity this way is not really something worthwhile though. Really, you want to figure out how often your opponent needs to fold to make betting/raising correct.

Have a look at these two threads for more:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Number=3069765

[oly3455]

Yeah I think fold equity is best used as a general term to describe a situation, and not as an exact calculation. Like if you hold AsQs on a 4s7s9x board, you might c/r as a semi-bluff because you know such a move will have a lot of fold equity.

[ninjapoker]

Fuzzy,

I dont think your calc is right.

[(0.1)(10)]+[(0.25)(20)-(0.75)(20)]=-9

First, I think that should have a 0.9 multiplicator before the second part of the equation (cause thats the calc for when he calls us, and that will only happens 90% of time).

[(0.1)(10)]+(0.9)[(0.25)(20)-(0.75)(20)] = -8

But I still don't get how this move is -EV.

Lets just assume that villian calls 100%, in this case, according to you, our EV would be:

(0.25)(20)-(0.75)(20) = -10

I dont think this is right. First because when we lose, we dont lose the pot ($20), but only the ammount that we invested (5). And when we win, we dont win the pot, but the pot - investment (15).

(0.25)(15) - (0.75)(5) = 0

You can also do the following way:

Equity * POT - Investment
(0.25)(20)-5 = 0

----------------------------

Now that we concluded this, we can go back to the calculation:

[(0.1)(10)]+(0.9)[(0.25)(15)-(0.75)(5)]= +1

You say that "Fold equity is the (% likelihood your opponent folds) X (your gain in equity if the opponent folds)"

In this case, if I understood right, the likehood of him folding is 10%, but I didnt understand how you calculated whats our gain in equity if opponent folds.

[darkness]

you're approaching the concept of fold equity from the wrong direction. you don't calculate your fold equity so much as you calculate how much of it you need to make bluffing/semibluffing profitable.


in your example we have 25% equity and the pot is $10, w/$5 behind. to set up the equation think of this as a new ev calculation w/you "winning" when villain folds and "losing" when villain calls. the former will get you w/e is in the pot and in the latter you win your ev from your equity in the hand


if x is the probability w/which villain folds, then when villain folds you win the $10 in the pot. your ev when villain folds is 10x

villains calls w/probability 1-x, and 25% of the time you will win $15 when villain calls and lose $5 75% of the time. (1-x)(.25*15 - .75*5)

treat the two bolded expressions as an ev calc-- set them equal to each other and solve

10x - (1-x)(.25*15 - .75*5) = 0

10x - (1-x)(0) = 0

10x = 0

x = 0

this doesn't mean we have 0 fe. it means we need 0 fe to break even, which is to say that we make money by betting if villain ever folds. in general this is the case whenever you have 0 ev in a pot. note that for a given pot/stack size the less equity you have the more fe you will need to break even. this makes sense intuitively b/c you will lose more often when called, so you need villain to fold more.

you will always have imperfect info so you can never gauge your fold equity perfectly, but you can estimate how much you have according to the villain, the board, etc. and compare it to how much you need based on the calculation