Maximum breakeven stretches a winner can have

[Squizzel]

In theory, how long could you go without making any money. I dont seem to have huge downswings i tend to have huge stretches where i dont make much money at all. Lets say your an average of 4bb100 winner in the game, theroetically, How long could you not make money for?

[Probability]

I would say over 50k at least.

[alexgotay]

I've seen people with 100k hand stretches of BE.

[thac]

"In theory" there's no maximum length because a streak isn't a streak, it's only in your mind. It has no beginning, no end, and it's only breakeven if you alter the dates/times to say it is. We could venture to say that there is x amount of maximum hands that you could break even but in reality, there's no magic number, because maybe you're breakeven for the last 20k hands, but maybe you were also -10k in the first 5k hands and +10k in the last 15k hands. That's not really a breakeven, that's $1/hand for the last 15k hands.

Basically, don't worry about short-term results and breakevens and swings that you can't control because it will only make your game suffer more.

[Squizzel]

thanks thac

[Mrgoffa]

This question cannot be answered without a standard deviation/hand assumption about being a 4 bb/100 winner. However lets say you have stats of at least 500k hand that say you are a 4bb/100 winner then the probability that you will only breakeven over x hands can be calculated assuming a certain sd/hand. A 4 bb/100 winner is a 0,08 winner/hand.

I´m not going to account for the math behind this but if you are a 4 bb/100 winner to only break even over 50k hands 1 time in a thousand (total 50 million hands divide into 1000 50 k hands breakeven one 50k sample) your standard deviation per hand cant be higher than about approx 6/ hand.

Same as above but the probability to break even about 2-3 times of one hundred over 50k hands (thats 5 million hands break even 2 or 3 50 k samples) your standard deviation cant be higher than approx 9/hand.

These calculations only hold up for the assumptions you made about being a 4 bb/100 winner. If you use statsprogram like PT,PO take a look at your sd. If in fact you are winner of lets say 2 bb/100 then your probability of only breaking even long periods skyrockets.

[renton]

forever

[dagrem]

http://fold4value.blogspot.com/2007/06/varianz.html
i know its german but the graphs are self-explanatory
he made a little simulation program. the graphs show 4ptbb winners, 2ptbb winners and breakeven players.
the biggest downswing of a 2ptbb player over 100k hands were 60 buyins...
pretty sick stuff