Poker Theory Optimum plays
Hi, I made a quick post in a theoretical blind steal% thread which I said I would expand on. Some of which I said in that post is incorrect so I would like to give a correct account of some poker theory.
As a side note I cant take any credit for this work it was all done by a great theory poster called Matthew Jander. I will happily have this post deleted as I dont want to rip of someone else s work but I think there are some important ideas.
3Bet Pots
In theory we should defend to 3bets around 30% of the time on a its not profitable to call OOP unless the 3bet is for min. When we flat OOP we rarely have a strong hand or it would 4bet PF.
Folding to around 70% of 3bets is the sweet spot. To much were getting exploited to little were too loose.
3Bets should be at a ratio of 2:3 two 3Bets for value & three 3bets as a bluff.
Any bluffing hand should be making a profit or we were better off folding.
Any calling hand IP (we open from the button get 3bet from the blinds) should be making a profit.
Calling hand should be the ones two strong to bluff with but to weak to bet for value. I.e KQs QJs,
Hands with blockers like ATo or KQo make good bluffing hands as a 4bet bluff.
The ration aspect of 3betting comes from the fact that we need to fold to 60% of 4bets to make villain indifferent with his 4bets.
There are some small assumptions made here like bets sizes are pretty standard like PSP and a 3.5x 3bet size
EG. CO opens 3.5bb gets 3bet to around 12bb by the button. If CO responds by 4betting its around 25bb. so the CO risks 22.5bb to win 17bb. So his 4bet must work 56% of the time. So our 3bets bluff should be around 56% of the time.
Blind defense
Against a standard PSB steal we should be defending 70% of the time to villains open.
This is impossible to do but defending 30% of the time would be optimal.
Therefor if villain folds more than 70% of the time it is profitable to open ATC from the button.
Post flop IP
In theory cbets only need to get folds work around 46% of the time to show an instant profit. Therefore if we call PF we should be defending against cbets 55% of the time or villain is showing an instant profit. If were calling a cbet we need to defend more because villain is then free rolling the turn
FWIW THIS IS HARD TO DO.
Example of a difficult spot to defend.
Villain opens UTG.
We flat JJ on the button
Flop 2h2s2c
Villain should know he has the nuts with JJ+ as any bigger pairs would 3bet PF.
This makes it really hard for hero to defend even IP.
How should we defend on the flop
If villain cbets 6bb into 8bb and we raise to 16bb to win 14bb it suggests it needs to work 53.3% of the time to show a profit. Therefore villain needs to defend our raise 46.7% (hence a cbet only needs to work around 46% of the time to show an instant profit).
If villain 3bets the flop usually to around 34bb he risks 28bb to win 30bb. It must work around 48.3%.
This suggest we can raise the flop as a bluff around 48% of the time.
So a flop raise should be at a 1:1 ratio of bluffs to value.
Its never that simple as sometimes there will be call in the mix.
Flop raises get called
Its easier to work backwards.
If we have a strong hand we want to get all the money in IE a set on the flop.
A standard bet could be.
We raise a flop bet to 16bb
We bet turn 28bb
We make a 52bb pot sized bet on the river.
Therefore if villain calls the river he risks 52bb to win 148bb.
Or river bet needs to be good 74% of the time against villains river calling range.
If we bet 28bb on the turn villain risks 28bb to win around 68bb. Villain needs us to check or fold the river 71% of the time for his turn play to be +EV.
If we raise the flop to 16bb villain risks 10bb to win to win 30bb. W need to bet 75% of turns to make his flop call indifferent.
.75 * .71 * .74 = 39.4 %
So 39.4% of our flop cbet range must be able to continue to the river.
This shows how on the flop we can bluff lots, less on the turn and less on the river.
Also the above doesn't account for calling adjustments must be made this is because its rarely a good play to call raises OOP
FWIW this is all theoretical exploitation super seeds any optimal play. Ie at the micros ISO raising fish staying tight in the blinds not getting fancy on flops is still the way forward.
Well thats all for now
Cheers Craig
Last edited by Diginet : 12-18-2011 at 07:06 AM.
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